Modeling the Effects of Heterogeneity in Water Quality on Cholera Disease Dynamics

要求提供资金，以分析霍乱流行病并建立模型。为了完成这一任务，该小组将分析海地（2010年）、安哥拉（2006年）和伦敦（1832年）霍乱暴发的时空数据;发展水传播疾病耦合斑块模型的数学理论;并发展预测不同情景下疾病传播的模型。该研究将探讨人类（直接）和环境（延迟）途径对疾病传播的贡献，并调查发展中国家普遍存在的水质异质性如何影响霍乱疾病动态。本项目将进一步了解霍乱空间传播的控制因素，研究霍乱风险热点之间的布局和连通性如何影响疾病传播，并建立一个快速应对霍乱危机的模型框架。拟议的研究不仅对理解和预测霍乱传播，而且对其他水传播疾病具有明确的实践和理论意义，超越具体的学习体系。该小组将为水传播疾病的耦合斑块模型开发数学理论，并进一步了解个人和水的流动对霍乱传播的影响。该小组还将探讨是否将疾病暴发早期阶段的数据纳入参数估计，以及是否可以利用关于水质和可用性以及现有卫生设施类型的信息，在疾病到达特定地区之前提高对模型参数的认识。康奈尔大学夏季数学学院（本科生）和加州大学洛杉矶分校数学圈（K-12年级）。该项目将通过与多伦多大学的科学家和学生的互动加强国际科学合作，通过提高对影响霍乱在一个地区入侵、传播和持续能力的因素的认识，这项研究将为社会带来好处。建议的研究将提供一个工具，以预测在不同情况下的疾病传播，以便对霍乱危机作出快速反应，并评估不同干预策略在遏制霍乱空间传播方面的成效。该小组将与疾病控制中心和国土安全部内的国家生物监测综合中心进行互动并将其研究结果传达给他们。他们将与联合国大学水、环境和卫生研究所合作，结合几个暴发地点的水质、供水和卫生设施数据，汇编一个世界各地霍乱暴发时间序列数据数据库。

Funding was requested to analyze and model cholera epidemics. In order to accomplish this task, the team will analyze spatio-temporal data from cholera outbreaks in Haiti (2010), Angola (2006) and London (1832); develop mathematical theory for coupled patch models of waterborne disease; and develop models to predict disease spread under different scenarios. The study will explore the contribution of humans (direct) and of environmental (delayed) pathways to disease transmission and investigate how heterogeneity in water quality, which is ubiquitous in developing countries, affects cholera disease dynamics. This project will advance understanding of the factors governing the spatial spread of cholera, examine how the arrangement and connectivity between cholera risk hot spots influence disease spread and develop a modeling framework for rapid response to a cholera crisis.The proposed study has clear practical and theoretical significance for understanding and predicting not only cholera transmission, but other waterborne diseases as well, reaching beyond the specific study system. The team will develop mathematical theory for coupled patch models of waterborne diseases and advance understanding of the effects of movement of individuals and of water to cholera transmission. The team will also explore inclusion of data from early stages of an outbreak on parameter estimates and whether information on water quality and availability and on types of sanitation facilities available can be used to improve knowledge of model parameters before the disease has reached a given area.This study will result in the training of undergraduates and graduate students, and include outreach to the Columbus Science Pub (public), Cornell's Summer Math Institute (undergraduates) and the UCLA Math Circle (grades K-12). This project will strengthen international scientific collaboration through interaction with scientists and students from the University of Toronto.The research from this study will provide society benefits through improved understanding of the factors influencing the ability of cholera to invade, spread and persist in a region. The proposed study will provide a tool to predict disease spread under different scenarios for rapid response to a cholera crisis and evaluate the efficacy of different intervention strategies on containing cholera spatial spread. The team will interact and communicate their research findings to the Centers for Disease Control and the National Biosurveillance Integration Center within the Department of Homeland Security. They will collaborate with the United Nations University Institute for Water, Environment and Health to compile a database of time series data from cholera outbreaks worldwide, in association with data on water quality, water availability, and sanitation facilities from several outbreak locales.