Understanding the Connection Between Tropical Cyclones and Climate Through Multi-Model Simulations

该项目的主要目标如下：(I)提高对20世纪初以来热带气旋活动的自然变异性和趋势的了解；(Ii)量化气候变暖下热带气旋特征的预测变化。将分析由最近成立的美国气候可预测性和可变性计划工作组生成的飓风和气候多模型数据集。常见的诊断将包括气旋路径和强度、主要热带热带气旋统计数据的分析、与热带气旋生成和增强相关的环境条件分析。这项工作旨在通过对一个独特的高分辨率多模式数据集的分析，更好地了解目前TC之间的关系，以及未来TC活动的更稳健和更定量的项目。这一数据集将促进对气候和TC之间关系的理解；此外，由于几个建模小组之间的互动，国际和国家合作将得到加强。它将通过指导博士后科学家以及在纽约地区开展外联活动来促进培训。

The main objectives of this project are as follows (i) to improve the understanding of natural variability and trends in tropical cyclone (TC) activity since the beginning of the 20th century; (ii) to quantify projected changes in the characteristics of tropical cyclones under a warming climate. The multi-model dataset generated by the recently established U.S. Climate Predictability and Variability program working group on hurricanes and climate, will be analyzed. The common set of diagnostics will include cyclone tracks and intensities, analysis of key tropical TC statistics, analysis of environmental conditions associated with TC genesis and intensification in the models. The work aims at better understanding of the relationship between TC in the present, as well as more robust and quantitative projects of TC activity in the future, based on the analysis of a unique high-resolution multi-model dataset. This data set will advance the understanding of the relationship between climate and TC; in addition international and national collaboration will be enhances as a result of interactions between several modeling groups. It will promote training through mentoring of post-doctoral scientists as well through outreach activities in the New York area.