RAPID: Assessment of the Drought Situation in the Horn of Africa

这个快速发展项目将及时审查东非目前的干旱情况。有四个科学目标：㈠评估干旱的严重程度和受影响区域的范围; ㈡确定干旱的季节性; ㈢调查造成干旱异常严重的因素; ㈣预测干旱持续到2012年的可能性。对非洲之角而言，达成这一认识比对非洲大多数地区更具挑战性，因为季节周期复杂，影响该地区干旱的因素众多，无法获得一些受灾国家的气象数据，以及对该地区的气象研究历史稀少。该预测将与格鲁吉亚理工学院的Peter韦伯斯特教授的研究小组合作进行。该项目将增加对世界上一个经常遭受天气灾害的地区的气象学的了解，而我们目前对这些灾害的影响因素知之甚少。最后，该项目将展示一种预测方法，如果成功，有可能应用于其他地点和情况。

This RAPID project will examine the current drought in East Africa in a timely manner. There are four scientific goals (i) to assess the severity of the drought and the extent of regional area affected; (ii) to determine the seasonal nature of the drought; (iii) to investigate the factors contributing to its unusual severity; and (iv) to predict the likelihood that the drought will persist into 2012. Reaching this understanding is more challenging for the Horn of Africa than for most areas of Africa because of the complexity of the seasonal cycle, the multiple factors that influence drought in this region, the lack of access to meteorological data from some of the countries afflicted, and the sparse history of meteorological research on this region. The prediction will be carried out in collaboration with the research group of Prof. Peter Webster of Georgia Institute of Technology.This project will increase understanding of meteorology in an area of the world that is frequently plagued by weather disasters and where we currently have little understanding of the factors governing such disasters. Finally the project will demonstrate a forecast approach that, if successful, has the potential to be applied to other locations and situations.