CNH: Exploring Social, Ecological, and Hydrological Regime Shifts in the Logone Floodplain of Cameroon

这一跨学科研究项目将侧重于人类活动和气候变化对非洲洪泛区的影响。非洲洪泛区是人类-自然系统耦合的一个很好的例子，因为它们在多个社会、生态和水文系统之间表现出强烈的相互作用。季节性洪水的面积、深度和持续时间的年内和年际变化对生态系统以及人类生活和生计产生直接和间接影响。研究人员将开发一个综合计算机模型，模拟喀麦隆洛贡洪泛区社会、生态和水文系统之间的动态耦合。该模型将使他们能够模拟气候变化情景和人类对社会，生态和水文系统的景观改造的影响。 洛贡洪泛区的渔民通过建造数千条个人拥有的鱼渠来改变洪泛区的水文。 这些运河的累积效应可能相当于大型水坝的影响。 大型水坝对非洲洪泛区的破坏性影响已经有了很好的记录，但不太清楚的是，像鱼渠这样规模较小、速度较慢的变化如何可能导致政权更迭，从而产生同样灾难性的后果。 如果洪泛区的特点是临界过渡，渔渠的逐渐增加可能会导致一个突然和灾难性的过渡相当于大型水坝的影响。集成的计算机模型将使研究人员能够研究政权转移的性质。 该项目汇集了来自广泛学科的研究人员，将采用跨学科的方法，通过实地研究、遥感分析和建模相结合的方式，对人类和自然系统的耦合进行调查。该项目将有助于非洲洪泛区的可持续管理，这在生态和经济方面具有巨大的重要性。通过开发一个综合计算机模型，使利益攸关方能够评估不同人类活动和气候变化情景的影响。该项目将对俄亥俄州州立大学和喀麦隆马鲁阿大学的研究生和本科生进行教育和培训，使他们掌握研究和管理人类与自然系统耦合的定量和定性跨学科方法。 该项目由NSF耦合自然和人类系统动力学（CNH）计划和NSF国际科学与工程办公室支持。

This interdisciplinary research project will focus on the impact of human activities and climate change on African floodplains. African floodplains are an excellent example of coupled human-natural systems because they exhibit strong interactions among multiple social, ecological, and hydrological systems. The intra-annual and inter-annual variations in the area, depth, and duration of seasonal flooding have direct and indirect impacts on ecosystems and human lives and livelihoods. The researchers will develop an integrated computer model that simulates the dynamic couplings among social, ecological and hydrological systems of the Logone floodplain in Cameroon. The model will allow them to simulate the impacts of climate change scenarios and human modifications of the landscape on the social, ecological, and hydrological systems. Fishermen in the Logone floodplain have been modifying the floodplain's hydrology by constructing thousands of individually owned fish canals. The cumulative effect of these canals may equal the impact of large-scale dams. The devastating impact of large-scale dams on African floodplains has been well documented, but what is less clear is how smaller, slower changes like the fish canals may result in regime shifts that have equally disastrous consequences. If the floodplain is characterized by critical transitions, the gradual increase in fish canals may result in a sudden and catastrophic transition equivalent to the impact of large-scale dams. The integrated computer model will enable researchers to examine the nature of the regime shift. The project brings together a team of researchers from a broad range of disciplines and will use a transdisciplinary approach to investigate coupled human and natural systems using a combination of field research, remote sensing analysis, and modeling.The project will contribute to the sustainable management of African floodplains, which are of enormous ecological and economic importance, by developing an integrated computer model that will permit stakeholders to evaluate the impact of different human activities and climate change scenarios. The project will educate and train graduate and undergraduate students at the Ohio State University and at Maroua University in Cameroon in quantitative and qualitative, transdisciplinary approaches to the study and management of coupled human and natural systems. This project is supported by the NSF Dynamics of Coupled Natural and Human Systems (CNH) Program and the NSF Office of International Science and Engineering.