CAREER: Adaptive Operational Coordination Methodology for Uncertainty Reduction in Product Life Cycle Reliability and Service Logistics

该学院早期职业发展(CALEAR)项目的研究目标是开发一种凝聚力强、适应性强的运营协调方法，以减少产品生命周期可靠性和服务物流方面的总体不确定性。该方法包括三个阶段：稳健加速测试(AT)、基于AT增强的状态维修和操作协调，每个阶段都需要自己的数学模型和计算工具。特别是，这种方法为规划稳健的AT提供了一种新的最优试验设计方法，初步减少了一般(例如随机)运行条件下产品可靠性估计的不确定性。在精细化可靠性估计的基础上，将开发数学和统计模型，以实现对产品可靠性的实时控制。通过纳入有关服务延误的信息，维护和物流流程将随着对产品可靠性的实时控制而进行调整，以减少涉及的总体不确定性。该方法将通过正在进行的涉及风力涡轮机试验台开发的风能研究以及与领先的行业合作伙伴的合作来验证。如果成功，这项研究将对可靠性测试、基于状态的维护和服务后勤做出根本性贡献，因为它将分散的任务整合到一个更有效和更可行的框架中。从本质上讲，对产品生命周期中自适应协调的理解的增加，将使当前需要先进数学工具的研究方向和行业实践发生根本性变化。此外，这项研究将支持美国可再生能源技术的开发和使用，作为能源安全和独立的国家优先事项。它将对复合材料、传感器、控制、电力系统等多个工程领域产生积极影响。最后，在多学科环境中计划的教育活动将帮助学生和工作专业人员获得分析和实验技能以及满足社会需求的系统思维能力。

The research objective of this Faculty Early Career Development (CAREER) project is to develop a cohesive, adaptive operational coordination methodology for overall uncertainty reduction in product life cycle reliability and service logistics. The methodology consists of three stages: robust accelerated testing (AT), AT-enhanced condition based maintenance, and operational coordination, each of which needs its own mathematical models and computational tools. In particular, this methodology offers a new optimal experimental design approach for planning robust AT that preliminarily reduces the uncertainty in product reliability estimate under generic (e.g., stochastic) operating conditions. Based on the refined reliability estimate, mathematical and statistical models will be developed to enable the real-time control of product reliability. By incorporating the information about service delays, maintenance and logistic processes will be adjusted along with the real-time control of product reliability to reduce the overall uncertainty involved. The methodology will be validated through ongoing wind energy research involving wind turbine test bed development and collaboration with leading industry partners. If successful, this research will lead to fundamental contributions to reliability testing, condition based maintenance, and service logistics, as it integrates disjoint tasks into a more efficient and viable framework. Essentially, the increased understanding of adaptive coordination in a product life cycle will make radical changes to the current research direction and industry practices that demand advanced mathematical tools. Moreover, this research will support the development and use of renewable energy technologies in the US, as a national priority, for energy security and independence. It will positively impact multiple engineering fields, such as composites materials, sensors, controls, and power systems. Finally, the planned educational activities in a multidisciplinary environment will help students and working professionals acquire both analytical and experimental skills as well as systems thinking capabilities to meet societal needs.