Collaborative Research: EaSM2--Wildfires and Regional Climate Variability - Mechanisms, Modeling, and Prediction

野火是气候系统的重要组成部分，在调节区域气候变率方面发挥着重要作用。该项目的总体目标是阐明野火在年代际气候变化和预测中的作用。在过去十年野火观测的基础上，选择变异性较大的区域进行有针对性的建模分析。工作假设是：观测到的火灾变率受区域气候变化的调节，火灾的气候反馈增加了区域气候变率。因此，野火及其反馈的模拟对于预测年代际尺度的区域气候变率至关重要。这些假设将得到彻底的检验，并将利用大量的观测资料和选定的气候模式模拟集合仔细分析其机制过程。在本项目中，将通过建立具有生态系统反馈的新的区域特定火灾模型（RFMEF）来发展野火及其气候强迫的建模能力。野火造成的区域气候强迫和火灾对区域气候变率的反馈将被量化。最后，将研究完全交互的区域火-气候变率反馈，以了解年代际区域气候变率的预估。了解年际和年代际尺度的区域气候变率对于设计和试验（区域）适应和减缓战略至关重要。许多大气、海洋和生态系统因子对区域气候变率有贡献，其中大部分因子已经在地球系统模式中被捕获。其中一个尚未得到充分体现的因素是野火。区域气候变率和野火之间的双向相互作用不仅对改进十年尺度气候模式的模拟和预测很重要，而且在应用气候模式审查针对气候变化加剧（部分由于这些相互作用）引起的脆弱性的适应战略和调查森林管理做法缓解战略的有效性时也是必要的。将为社区地球系统模型（CESM）系统开发的开源RFMEF火灾模型和将在项目中生成的气候建模数据将使政策专家能够对受野火严重影响地区的气候政策进行更深入的分析，并使其他科学家能够进行包括火灾-生态系统-气候相互作用在内的气候模拟和预测，这更适合他们的研究和评估需求。

Wildfire is a key component of the climate system and plays an important role in regulating regional climate variability. The overarching goal of this project is to elucidate the role of wildfire in decadal climate variation and prediction. On the basis of wildfire observations in the past decade, the regions that the variability of fire is large will be selected for targeted modeling analysis. The working hypotheses are that the observed fire variability is regulated by regional climate variation and that the climate feedbacks from fires increase regional climate variability. Consequently, the simulation of wildfires and their feedbacks is essential for predicting regional climate variability on a decadal scale. These hypotheses will be thoroughly tested and the mechanistic process will be carefully analyzed using an extensive suite of observations and selected ensembles of climate model simulations. In this project, the modeling capability of wildfires and their climate forcing will be developed by building a new Region-specific Fire Model with Ecosystem Feedbacks (RFMEF). Regional climate forcing by wildfires and fire feedbacks to regional climate variability will be quantified. Lastly fully interactive regional fire-climate variability feedbacks will be investigated to understand the projections of decadal regional climate variability. Understanding the interannual and decadal-scale regional climate variability is critical for designing and testing (regional) adaptation and mitigation strategies. Many atmospheric, oceanic, and ecosystem factors contribute to regional climate variability and most of these factors are already captured in the earth system models. One such factor not yet well represented is wildfire. The two-way interactions between regional climate variability and wildfire not only are important in improving the decadal-scale climate model simulation and prediction but also are necessary when applying the climate model to examine adaptation strategies targeted at the vulnerability induced by enhanced climate variation (due in part to these interactions) and to investigate the effectiveness of mitigation strategies of forest management practices. The open-source RFMEF fire model that will be developed for the Community Earth System Model (CESM) system and the climate modeling data that will be generated in the project will enable policy experts to conduct more in-depth analysis of climate policies in regions strongly affected by wildfire and allow other scientists to conduct climate simulations and prediction that include the fire-ecosystem-climate interactions and that are more suitable for their research and assessment needs.