RAPID: Development of a Nonlinear Activity Response Model for Coronavirus (COVID-19) Scenario Projections Based on the Observations of the Shutdown-Reopening Cycle of China

这个快速项目将调查中国因新冠肺炎而关闭和重新开业的周期，并评估研究此周期的有用性，为美国、欧洲国家和医疗检测能力严重受限的国家的政策制定提供指导。从震中(武汉和湖南省)到其他25个省份，4个省级特大城市(北京、上海、天津和重庆)，以及5个少数民族自治区，人们对新冠肺炎的反应差异很大。响应活动的代理数据包括处理后的Tropomi对流层垂直NO2柱数据和中国逐日NOx排放的反向模拟。该项目的假设是：(1)新冠肺炎感染数据(包括冠状病毒阳性检测、住院和死亡数据)和政府政策在很大程度上塑造了社会和企业的反应；(2)对流层柱NO2的近实时监测为衡量社会和企业的活动反应提供了及时的高时空数据，这是传统方法无法获得的；(3)利用中国不同地区不同程度的新冠肺炎感染、政府政策和活动响应的大型数据集，将建立一个非线性响应模型，稍后可以使用美国和其他国家的数据对该模型进行修正，以通过情景分析提供决策指导。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并已通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

This RAPID project will investigate the cycle of shutdown and reopening of businesses in China due to COVID-19, and assess the usefulness of studying this cycle for providing guidance for policymaking in the U.S., European countries, and the countries where the medical testing capability is severely limited. The response to COVID-19 has varied significantly from the epicenter (Wuhan and Hunan province) to the other 25 provinces, 4 provincial-level megacities (Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin, and Chongqing), and 5 autonomous regions for minority ethnic groups. The proxy data for response activities includes the processed TROPOMI tropospheric vertical NO2 column data and inverse modeling of daily NOx emissions in China. The hypotheses of this project are that (1) the COVID-19 infection data (including coronavirus positive test, hospitalization, and mortality data) and government policies largely shape the responses by the society and businesses; (2) near real-time monitoring of tropospheric column NO2 provide timely high spatiotemporal data for gauging the activity responses by the society and businesses, which are unavailable through conventional means; (3) with the large datasets of varying degrees of COVID-19 infection, governmental policy, and activity responses in different regions of China, a nonlinear response model will be developed and this model can later be corrected with data from US and other countries to provide policymaking guidance through scenario analysis.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.