NSF CNH-Ex: Pastoralism in Transition: Linking Localized Interactions and System Behavior to Evaluate Social-Ecological Vulnerability

这个CNH项目是关于发展中国家贫困农村社区正在进行的生计转型，以应对日益恶化的环境条件、不断变化的社会趋势和更广泛的治理变化。虽然生计活动的转变有可能改善人类福祉、粮食安全和生态可持续性，但它也可能产生相反的效果，增加人类人口及其支持的生态系统的脆弱性。在非洲的旱地，约有1亿牧民严重或完全依靠畜牧业为生。现代化带来了剧烈的政治和社会变化，以及前所未有的人口增长、土地退化和更频繁的干旱，导致畜群死亡。今天，许多牧民正在采用农作物农业，以及他们苦苦挣扎的畜牧业生计体系，以此作为实现亟需的多样化的途径。这种转变导致景观的生态功能、家庭和整个社区面临的风险水平以及管理土地使用和土地权的当局和规则发生深刻变化。鉴于这些变化的复杂性和新颖性，评估可能缓解或加剧社会和生态脆弱性的条件是一项深刻的挑战，但由于世界各地传统的勉强维持生计的社会面临同样不确定的未来，因此迫切需要这样做。这项研究将评估肯尼亚两个马赛社区向农牧的转变如何影响社会生态脆弱性的三个组成部分：生态系统对干旱和不断变化的放牧压力的敏感性；家庭在转变过程中承担的风险程度；以及社区通过的一套新规则和做法所提供的应对能力。这项研究采用的方法是基于复杂系统理论的进展，该理论可以应用于生态系统、人类互动和治理系统。这种方法也是非常有利的，因为它使人们能够利用关于容易测量的小规模相互作用的信息来理解和预测在整个社会生态系统层面上出现的更广泛的趋势，如引爆点和阈值。通过开发基于理论的方法来评估脆弱性的多个维度，这项研究将在理论和现实世界的经验评估之间建立变革性的联系。它将直接提高科学家理解和解决世界各地出现的其他复杂可持续问题的能力。通过持续参与和对话，将与当地社区成员分享研究程序和结果，作为赋权和可持续发展规划的工具。与区域学术、发展和保护社区的关键同行的合作关系将确保开发的研究工具将增强其他可持续发展倡议和研究计划的方法和影响。该项目的导师博士生和博士后将获得一次独特的学习经验，了解科学与社会合作对高影响力研究成果的价值。该项目得到了美国自然与人类耦合系统动力学(CNH)计划的支持。

This CNH project is about livelihood transitions that poor rural communities in developing countries are making in order to cope with deteriorating environmental conditions, shifting social trends, and broader changes in governance. While the transformation of livelihood activities has the potential to improve human well-being, food security, and ecological sustainability, it can also have the opposite effect and increase the vulnerability of the human population and the ecosystems that support them. In the drylands of Africa, about 100 million pastoralists rely heavily or solely on livestock production for their subsistence. Modernization has brought drastic political and social changes, as well as unprecedented population growth, land degradation and more frequent droughts that decimate herds. Today, many pastoralists are adopting crop agriculture alongside their struggling livestock-based livelihood system as an avenue for much-needed diversification. Such a transformation entails profound changes in the ecological functioning of landscapes, the level of risk exposure faced by households and whole communities, and the authorities and rules governing land use and land rights. Given the complexity and novelty of these changes, assessing the conditions under which social and ecological vulnerability is likely to be alleviated or exacerbated is a profound challenge, but is urgently needed as traditional subsistence-level societies worldwide face similarly uncertain futures. This research will assess how the transition to agro-pastoralism in two Maasai communities in Kenya is affecting three components of social-ecological vulnerability: the ecosystem's sensitivity to drought and shifting grazing pressure; the degree of risk exposure that households take on as they make the transition; and the coping capacity afforded by the suite of new rules and practices adopted by the communities. The approach adopted in this research is based on advances in complex systems theory, which can be applied to ecosystems, human interactions, and governance systems alike. This approach is also highly advantageous because it enables the use of information about easily-measured, small-scale interactions to understand and predict broader trends such as tipping points and thresholds, which emerge at the level of the whole social-ecological system. By developing theoretically grounded methods to evaluate multiple dimensions of vulnerability, this research will build transformative links between theory and real-world empirical assessments. It will directly enhance the ability of scientists to understand and solve other complex sustainability problems emerging around the world. Through ongoing participation and dialogue, research procedures and findings will be shared with local community members as tools for empowerment and sustainability planning. Cooperative ties with key colleagues in regional academic, development, and conservation communities will ensure that the research tools developed will enhance the approaches and impact of other sustainability initiatives and research programs. The project's mentored PhD student and postdoc will gain a unique learning experience of the value of science-society collaborations for high-impact research outcomes. This project is supported by the NSF Dynamics of Coupled Natural and Human Systems (CNH) Program.