RAPID: Communication and Understanding of Hurricane Sandy Storm Surge Forecast and Warning Information

快速反应研究基金（RAPID）提供资金，让一组经验丰富的研究人员在现场收集与热带风暴/飓风/超级风暴桑迪相关的重要时间敏感数据。 这场风暴的严重后果使更好地理解和改进预报和警报通信的必要性变得更加紧迫。 国家飓风中心的准确预报为人们采取行动提供了足够的预警时间。然而，对许多人来说，意识到采取行动的必要性为时已晚。 风暴在接近登陆纽约市地区时从热带风暴转变成飓风，然后再转变成温带风暴。这一转变导致了国家气象局（NWS）内部职责的业务变化沿着媒体和应急管理如何解释风暴危害的可能变化。在周一登陆前的周五至周日时间，当必须做出关键决定时，桑迪勉强算得上一级飓风，可能导致人们认为它不会有危险的风暴潮。 它的主要影响是在一个不太习惯于规划大型飓风的地区，并且在前一年经历了一场具有非常不同特征的艾琳。 这些因素可能导致了响应延迟，但需要进行研究，以查明在预测沟通过程中实际发生了什么，并提出改进建议。 收集的结果将有助于调查如何改善风暴预报沟通，以促进公共安全和减少飓风成本。 至少有125人死亡（大部分死于风暴潮），估计桑迪可能成为有记录以来损失最大的天气事件之一。数以千计的企业、房屋和家庭被毁，许多人再也没有恢复过来。 如果国家飓风中心准确预报风暴潮的能力不断提高，要转化为拯救生命、减少损失和政府耗资巨大的恢复需求，就必须改进预报沟通和政府应对流程。 这一需要是本项目收集和分析具有时间敏感性的信息的理由。

This Rapid Response Research Grant (RAPID) provides funding to put a team of experienced researchers in the field to collect important time-sensitive data related to Tropical Storm/Hurricane/Superstorm Sandy. The severe aftermath of this storm put new urgency on the need for better understanding of and improvement in forecast and warning communication. The accurate forecast from the National Hurricane Center provided sufficient warning time for people to take action. For many, however, realization of the need to act came too late. This storm transitioned from tropical storm to hurricane to extratropical (ET) storm as it approached landfall in the New York City area. That transition resulted in operational changes in responsibilities within the National Weather Service (NWS) along with possible changes in how media and emergency management interpreted the storm's hazards. During the Friday to Sunday time before Monday landfall, when critical decisions had to be made, Sandy was barely a Category 1 hurricane, possibly leading people to think it would not have a dangerous storm surge. Its major impact was on an area not highly accustomed to planning for major hurricanes and having experienced one, Irene, with very different characteristics the year before. These factors may have contributed to response delay, but research is needed to find out what actually happened in the forecast communication process and make recommendations for improvement. Results gathered will contribute to investigating ways for improving storm forecast communication to promote public safety and reduce hurricane costs. At least 125 people died (mostly from storm surge), and estimates indicate Sandy is likely to become one of the most costly weather events on record. Thousands of businesses, homes, and families were destroyed, many never to recover. If the increasing ability of the National Hurricane Center to make accurate storm surge forecasts is to translate into saving lives and lessening the damage and need for recovery so costly to government, the forecast communication and government response process must be improved. This need is the rationale to this project's gathering of time-sensitive information and its analysis.