Collaborative Research: Reconstruction and Understanding of Antarctic Circulation Variability and Trends since 1905

海平面气压(SLP)的变化模式是南极大气环流的潜在诊断，可用于模拟极地强迫机制，如平流层臭氧消耗、温室气体(GHG)增加、热带SST变化和固有的热带外气候动力学。以前的工作已经显示出在网格重建南极洲上空的温度方面有一些技巧，但还没有类似的以南极为重点的数据集用于SLP。一些研究已经认识到这样一个事实，即南极的SLP变化是地球上任何类似大小的地区中最大的。这意味着低信噪比。对于模拟和基于观测的研究，需要考虑较长的时间段，而不仅仅是自1979年以来的数据丰富的仪器期，以便评估各种类型的强迫的作用并探测它们的信号。该项目试图回答两组问题：(1)在上个世纪，南极环流在各个空间站和整个大陆上都发生了怎样的变化？过去三十年的变化在过去的100多年里是独一无二的吗？(2)在纬向平均和区域环流模式中，与这些变化相关的机制是什么？自然(内部)变化的范围是什么？SSTs、温室气体强迫和/或臭氧消耗的变化在推动这些变化中发挥了什么作用？

Patterns of variability in sea level pressure (SLP) are a potential diagnostic of the Antarctic atmospheric circulation, and may be used to model polar forcing mechanisms such as stratospheric ozone depletion, greenhouse gas (GHG) increases, tropical SST changes and intrinsic extra-tropical climate dynamics. Previous work has shown some skill in gridded reconstructions of temperature over Antarctica, yet no similar Antarctic-focused data sets exist for SLP. A few studies have recognized the fact that SLP variability over the Antarctic is the largest of any comparably sized region on Earth. This implies low signal-to-noise ratios. For both modeling and observation-based studies, long time periods need to be considered, not just the data-rich instrumented period since ~1979, in order to assess the roles of various types of forcing and to detect their signals. The project seeks to answer two sets of questions: (1) How has the Antarctic circulation changed during the last century, both at individual stations and across the continent? Are changes in the past three decades unique in the last 100+ years? (2) What mechanisms are associated with these changes, both in the zonal mean and regional circulation patterns? What is the range of natural (internal) variability, and what role do changes in SSTs, GHG forcing, and/or ozone depletion play in driving any of these changes?