CNH: Forest Governance and Climate Change in Driving Native Insect Outbreaks

在美国许多地区，本地昆虫的爆发会周期性地破坏森林，了解导致爆发的自然力量一直是一个长期的科学目标。人类活动如何与自然过程相互作用以促进或抑制疫情暴发的研究要少得多。这个项目将调查地方到联邦各级的森林治理、人为造成的气候变化、火灾频率和森林组成如何共同决定北美西部山松甲虫的爆发。这种本土昆虫最近扩大了范围和数量，杀死了数百万公顷的树木。预计结果将为制定新的政策提供科学依据，以便更好地预防或减轻这种昆虫和其他昆虫的暴发及其造成的重大经济损失。一个供管理人员和研究人员使用的建模工具将公开提供，该项目将与美国林业局合作，支持疫情控制。这项研究还将培训来自科学领域代表性不足群体的研究生，并通过当地活动和一门开放的在线课程接触到K-12和本科生。该项目旨在增进对自然和人类耦合系统的理解，这些系统由政府政策、生态过程和气候变化之间的反馈控制。这项研究将开发一个基于主体的计算模型，其中包含社会和生态组成部分的子模型，这些子模型相互作用，在各种气候变化情景下产生紧急的、大规模的森林变化模式。研究人员将采用高性能的并行计算，战略性地分布气候、昆虫和人类决策，以提供大量模拟，代表潜在的未来景观模式的空间。不确定性分析将提供对各种人类和自然过程如何随着时间的推移相互作用以影响疫情爆发地点和时间的洞察。

Outbreaks of native insects periodically strip forests in many parts of the U.S., and understanding the natural forces that lead to outbreaks has been a long-standing scientific goal. Much less studied has been how human activities may interact with natural processes to promote or inhibit outbreaks. This project will investigate how the governance of forests at local to federal levels, human-caused climate change, fire frequency, and forest composition together determine outbreaks of the mountain pine beetle in western North America. This native insect has recently expanded its range and abundance and killed millions of hectares of trees. Results are expected to provide a scientific basis for the crafting of new policies that can better prevent or mitigate outbreaks of this and other insects and the substantial economic losses they cause. A modeling tool for managers and researchers will be made publicly available, and the project will collaborate with the U.S. Forest Service to support control of outbreaks. The research will also train graduate students from groups underrepresented in science and reach out to K-12 and undergraduate students through local events and an open, online course.This project aims to advance understanding of coupled natural and human systems that are governed by feedbacks between government policies, ecological processes and climate change. The study will develop an agent-based, computational model with submodels for social and ecological components that interact to produce emergent, large-scale patterns of forest change under a variety of climate change scenarios. Researchers will employ high-performance, parallel computing that strategically distributes climate, insect, and human decision-making to provide a multitude of simulations representing the space of potential future landscape patterns. Uncertainty analysis will provide insight into how various human and natural processes interact over time to influence the location and timing of outbreaks.