CNH-L: Revealing the Hidden Ecoclimate Teleconnections Between Forest and Agriculture in the U.S. Enables Novel Governance Strategies for a Telecoupled World

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This award will provide decision-makers with the knowledge and tools to better understand and respond to the hidden connections, called teleconnections, between forest conditions in one part of the US and agricultural production elsewhere. Recent scientific studies show that changes in forests-such as the widespread die-off in the West related to drought, beetle infestations, and wildfires-affect patterns of temperature and precipitation, which in turn "connect" through atmospheric processes to agricultural production in other parts of the country. This research will determine the economic impacts of forest die-off across the US on agricultural yields and crop values and will develop a blueprint to manage the challenges of such outcomes. This award will provide decision-makers with the knowledge and tools to better manage natural-human systems in a telecoupled world.A grand challenge of the coming century is not only to understand the ecological connections between natural and human systems, but also to understand how and when changing ecological conditions can prompt effective governance feedback responses. This research contributes to the body of literature on telecoupled natural-human systems, focusing on the hidden linkages between forests and agriculture in the US. The long-term goal of the award is to provide decision-makers with the knowledge and tools to better manage natural-human systems in a telecoupled world. Changes in vegetation in one location can drive changes in temperature, precipitation, and, subsequently, gross primary productivity in distant locations-a process referred to as an ecoclimate teleconnection. For example, in recent years, California has seen a historic 129 million trees killed across 8.9 million acres, a result of drought, beetle infestation, and wildfire. Via ecoclimatic teleconnections, such large-scale forest die-off may result in telecoupled changes in human systems in distant locations, such as in agricultural yields in the Midwest and related market changes. Specifically, this research will: (1) determine the ecoclimate teleconnections of forest die-off across the US; (2) quantify economic impacts of such changes on US agricultural yield and crop values in key bioclimatic regions; (3) determine the political, institutional, and behavioral factors that may influence decision-makers' ability to respond adaptively to telecoupled forest-agricultural systems; and (4) convene an interactive workshop with decision-makers to present the research findings and to co-produce a blueprint for addressing the governance challenges of such telecoupling. The award will utilize the National Ecological Observatory Network to evaluate the effects of teleconnections between forests and agriculture.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.