Coastal SEES Collaborative Research: Adaptations of fish and fishing communities to rapid climate change

气候变化对沿海系统的可持续性提出了深刻的挑战。大多数研究都忽略了人类对气候影响的反应和这些反应对生态系统的累积影响之间的重要耦合。渔业是这种反馈的一个主要例子：气候变化导致物种分布和丰度的变化，渔业适应这些变化。然而，捕鱼地点和强度的变化也对生态系统产生重大影响。该项目的目标是了解气候和渔业如何相互作用，影响海洋种群的长期可持续性及其所支持的生态系统服务。此外，该项目将探索如何设计渔业管理和其他制度，以适应气候驱动的物种分布变化。该项目重点关注美国东北大陆架的夏季比目鱼和鳕鱼渔业，这些渔业的目标是北美一些变化最快的物种。通过关注影响鱼类、渔业、渔业社区和管理机构对气候变化影响的适应因素，该项目将直接应用于沿海的可持续性。该项目涉及与美国国家海洋和大气管理局的密切合作，研究人员将为负责夏季比目鱼和鳕鱼渔业的中大西洋和新英格兰渔业管理委员会进行定期报告，并保持频繁对话。为了加强本科教育，项目参与者将设计一个新的在线实验室调查，以探索气候变化对渔业的影响，并配有可视化工具，使学生能够探索探究驱动的问题，并突出使用真实数据进行教学的好处。该项目是美国国家科学基金会海岸科学、工程和教育可持续发展项目的一部分。该项目将解决三个问题：1)渔业和气候变化的相互影响如何影响海洋鱼类的持久性、丰度和分布？2)渔民和渔业社区如何适应物种范围的变化和相关的丰度变化？3)面对快速的气候变化，哪些制度能够创造激励机制来维持或最大化自然资本和综合社会财富的价值？一个跨学科的科学家团队将使用动态范围和统计模型，结合40年来渔业捕捞和鱼类生物地理学的地理参考数据，来确定鱼类种群如何受到捕捞、气候和不断变化的物种相互作用的累积影响。然后，该小组将利用有关渔民行为变化的综合信息，了解渔民如何应对物种分布和丰度的变化。访谈将探讨形成这些战略的社会、监管和经济因素。最后，一个夏季比目鱼和鳕鱼渔业的生物经济模型将研究监管权力的空间分布、人类社区内的社会反馈和不确定性如何影响社会维持自然和社会资本的能力。

Climate change presents a profound challenge to the sustainability of coastal systems. Most research has overlooked the important coupling between human responses to climate effects and the cumulative impacts of these responses on ecosystems. Fisheries are a prime example of this feedback: climate changes cause shifts in species distributions and abundances, and fisheries adapt to these shifts. However, changes in the location and intensity of fishing also have major ecosystem impacts. This project's goal is to understand how climate and fishing interact to affect the long-term sustainability of marine populations and the ecosystem services they support. In addition, the project will explore how to design fisheries management and other institutions that are robust to climate-driven shifts in species distributions. The project focuses on fisheries for summer flounder and hake on the northeast U.S. continental shelf, which target some of the most rapidly shifting species in North America. By focusing on factors affecting the adaptation of fish, fisheries, fishing communities, and management institutions to the impacts of climate change, this project will have direct application to coastal sustainability. The project involves close collaboration with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and researchers will conduct regular presentations for and maintain frequent dialogue with the Mid-Atlantic and New England Fisheries Management Councils in charge of the summer flounder and hake fisheries. To enhance undergraduate education, project participants will design a new online laboratory investigation to explore the impacts of climate change on fisheries, complete with visualization tools that allow students to explore inquiry-driven problems and that highlight the benefits of teaching with authentic data. This project is supported as part of the National Science Foundation's Coastal Science, Engineering, and Education for Sustainability program - Coastal SEES.The project will address three questions: 1) How do the interacting impacts of fishing and climate change affect the persistence, abundance, and distribution of marine fishes? 2) How do fishers and fishing communities adapt to species range shifts and related changes in abundance? and 3) Which institutions create incentives that sustain or maximize the value of natural capital and comprehensive social wealth in the face of rapid climate change? An interdisciplinary team of scientists will use dynamic range and statistical models with four decades of geo-referenced data on fisheries catch and fish biogeography to determine how fish populations are affected by the cumulative impacts of fishing, climate, and changing species interactions. The group will then use comprehensive information on changes in fisher behavior to understand how fishers respond to changes in species distribution and abundance. Interviews will explore the social, regulatory, and economic factors that shape these strategies. Finally, a bioeconomic model for summer flounder and hake fisheries will examine how spatial distribution of regulatory authority, social feedbacks within human communities, and uncertainty affect society's ability to maintain natural and social capital.