RAPID: Sociotechnical Systems under Stress

这项研究为美国和世界其他地区的海上石油勘探、页岩气钻探、核能发电以及采矿等行业管理风险、危险但必要的操作的工作场所安全和经济保障做出了重要贡献。这些产业对美国作为一个国家和全球贸易伙伴继续探索新能源和提高经济效率至关重要，但却给工人、工厂经营者和邻近社区带来了风险，可能使错误的成本增加许多倍。通过开发复杂性指数来衡量意外中断对大型技术系统性能造成的压力程度，可以有效地降低错误风险。该指数还衡量压力对管理组织稳定性的影响，以及其更有效、更有弹性地适应突发、意外威胁的能力。及时、准确的风险度量使决策者能够管理复杂技术系统中的资源和人员，调动所需的专门知识，并更有效地与相关受众进行沟通。在复杂的社会技术系统中，发展改进的应变和稳定之间的张力测量方法，提供了一个弹性指数，不仅提高了经济生产力，而且增加了美国工业的创新和创造力。相比之下，复杂的社会技术系统管理不善会导致巨大的生命、财产和经济安全损失，正如2014年5月13日土耳其索马矿难所见证的那样；2011年日本福岛核泄漏和2010年英国石油公司墨西哥湾漏油事件。通过对资源、知识、训练有素的人员和及时沟通的知情管理来降低大规模社会技术灾难的风险，是对美国工业和持续全球贸易的经济安全的实质性投资。本研究将开发一个原型复杂性指数，以衡量在快速发展的条件下运行的复杂社会技术系统中进化应变与适应稳定性的比率。应变和稳定性的两个函数将作为一个联合分布来测量，该分布将作为系统弹性的剖面。复杂性指数将创建一个度量来指示社会技术系统的当前状态，因为它暴露于反复出现的风险中，同时指示更大的操作系统中可用的储备能力的状态，这些储备能力可以被动员起来应对新出现的威胁。社会技术系统运行可持续性的一个关键因素是其适应威胁或破坏性条件的能力。原型复杂性指数旨在确定技术系统的运行结构及其对不同需求水平的容忍范围，它代表了一种衡量压力下社会技术系统对反复出现的风险的适应率的新方法。该指数将根据其管理组织的资源、技能和知识，参考整个系统的创新反应能力，衡量不同操作规模下的应变和稳定性的功能。设计良好的复杂性指数可以用来衡量在快速发展的风险条件下运行的其他社会技术系统的应变与稳定性。这种弹性的实际度量有助于解决技术和组织系统中的管理问题。研究结果将有助于在压力下管理社会技术系统的研究文献。

This study makes an important contribution to workplace safety and economic security in managing risky, dangerous, yet essential operations in industries such as offshore oil exploration, shale gas drilling, nuclear power generation, as well as mining for the United States and the rest of the world. Such industries, vital to the continued exploration of new sources of energy and economic efficiency for the United States as a nation as well as a global trading partner, nonetheless create risk to workers, plant operators, and neighboring communities that potentially multiply the costs of error many times over. Reducing the risk of error can be done effectively through the development of a complexity index to measure the degree of strain placed on the performance of large-scale, technical systems by unexpected disruptions. Such an index also measures the impact of strain on the stability of the managing organization and its ability to adapt to sudden, unexpected threats more effectively and resiliently. Timely, accurate measurement of risk enables decision makers to manage resources and personnel in complex technical systems, marshal needed expertise, and communicate to relevant audiences more effectively. Developing improved measures of tension between strain and stability occurring within complex, sociotechnical systems provides an index of resilience that enhances not only economic productivity, but also increases the innovation and creativity of U.S. industry. Mismanagement of complex, sociotechnical systems, in contrast, leads to large losses in lives, property, and economic security as witnessed by the May 13, 2014 mining disaster in Soma, Turkey; the 2011 nuclear breach in Fukushima, Japan, and the 2010 BP Oil Spill in the Gulf of Mexico. Reducing the risk of large-scale, sociotechnical disasters through informed management of resources, knowledge, trained personnel and timely communication represents a substantive investment in economic security for U.S. industry and continuing global trade.This study will develop a prototype complexity index to measure the rate of evolving strain vs. adapting stability in complex, sociotechnical systems operating in rapidly evolving conditions. The two functions of strain and stability will be measured as a joint distribution that will serve as profile of resiliency for the system. The complexity index will create a metric to indicate the current status of the sociotechnical system as it is exposed to recurring risk, while indicating, simultaneously, the status of reserve capacity available within the larger operational system that can be mobilized to counter emerging threats. A critical factor in the sustainability of a sociotechnical system's operation is its capacity to adapt to threatening or damaging conditions. A prototype complexity index, designed to identify the structure of a technical system's operation as well as its range of tolerance to varying levels of demand, represents a fresh means of measuring the rate of adaptation to recurring risk for sociotechnical systems under stress. The index will measure the functions of strain and stability at different scales of operation in reference to the overall system's capacity for innovative response, based on the resources, skill, and knowledge of its managing organization. Well designed, a complexity index may be adapted to measure strain vs. stability in other sociotechnical systems operating in rapidly evolving conditions of risk. This practical measure of resilience contributes to addressing management problems in both technical and organizational systems. Findings will contribute to the research literature on managing sociotechnical systems under stress.