SGER: Modeling Fragility of Sociotechnical Systems: A Transportation Study

这项研究提出了一项小型探索性研究，以设计和开发一套改进的分析模型，以评估人力资源管理人员、技术基础设施和动态用户群之间的交互。这些问题给负责维持大都市地区业务连续性和安全的公共机构带来了非同寻常的挑战。随着条件的变化或突发的、不可预见的事件扰乱技术系统的性能，交互的复杂性会增加。负责技术系统管理的人力资源管理人员需要进行干预，以减少对用户的破坏性后果。这些都是复杂的系统，需要一种集成的跨学科方法来建模用户和管理人员群体在与基础设施交互时的动态行为。现有的基于单一学科方法的模型不能很好地解决这一问题，本研究将研究复杂交通系统中的干扰问题。它将为管理面临极端事件风险的关键基础设施做出三项贡献。首先，它探索了一种跨学科的方法来构建以前从未以可行的方式完成的实时决策的计算模型。这种方法利用土木工程、公共政策和计算机科学的知识和技术来开发快速评估风险以及分配资源和时间的模型，这些模型可以通过练习面临危险并需要采取紧急行动的管理者来指导决策过程。其次，当这些模型被详细开发时，将产生经过测试的指标，用于参照城市交通和应急管理网络来表征社会技术基础设施。第三，该理论方法提供了一种评估受损技术系统中的级联功能障碍与组织应急响应系统中的知情适应的相互作用的方法，以在管理灾难中提供增强的决策支持。

This research proposes a small exploratory study to design and develop an improved set of analytical models to assess the interaction among human managers, technical infrastructure, and a dynamic population of users. Such problems create extraordinary challenges for public agencies that have responsibility for maintaining continuity of operations and security for metropolitan regions. The complexity of the interactions increases as conditions change or sudden, unanticipated events disrupt the performance of the technical systems. Human managers, responsible for the management of technical systems, need to intervene to reduce damaging consequences for the users. These are complex systems that require an integrated, interdisciplinary approach to modeling the dynamic behavior of the population of users and managers in their interaction with the infrastructure. Existing models, based on single disciplinary approaches, are inadequate for this problem.This study will address the problem of disruption in complex transportation systems. It will make three contributions to the management of critical infrastructure at risk from extreme events. First, it explores an interdisciplinary approach to building computational models of real-time decision making that have not been done before in a workable manner. This approach draws upon knowledge and techniques in civil engineering, public policy, and computer science to develop models of rapid assessment of risk and allocation of resources and time that can inform decision processes by practicing managers who confront danger and need to take urgent action. Second, the models, when developed in detail, will yield tested metrics for characterizing sociotechnical infrastructure in reference to urban transportation and emergency management networks. Third, the theoretical approach offers a method of assessing the interaction of cascading dysfunction in damaged technical systems countered by informed adaptation in organizational emergency response systems to provide enhanced decision support in managing disaster.