I-Corps: Dynamic Decision Support for Emergency Managers

I-Corps：为应急管理人员提供动态决策支持

• 批准号: 1260970
• 负责人: Louise Comfort
• 金额: $ 5万
• 依托单位: University of Pittsburgh
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2012
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2012-10-01 至 2013-03-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1260970&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Corps; Dynamic; Decision; Support; Emergency

The decision support software developed through this project represents a new tool to aid decision makers in making informed, efficient decisions. The software tool builds on earlier research that explored interactions among technical systems, organizational processes, and physical and social conditions that affect information flow in managing risk and uncertainty. The design approach develops practical decision models using Bayesian networks and influence diagrams to assess uncertain conditions, based on systematic identification of interdependencies among the component technical, organizational, and knowledge systems that characterize urgent operating environments. It integrates technical skills in computer programming and simulation design, grasp of business dynamics and marketing, and understanding of context, policies, and constraints of emergency management. This decision support module identifies options available for action, given actual constraints and near-real time information from multiple sources, and calculates the probability of success of each option, based on the collective judgment of experienced emergency managers. This decision support tool addresses problems of scalability and simultaneity in information flow processes that have hindered inter-organizational decision making in large-scale, regional disasters. Modeling potential outcomes can systematically enable managers to compare a broader range of options. If successfully developed, this dynamic decision support tool may have a transformative effect on how communities manage risk. As the number, type, and severity of disasters increase in a global society that depends increasingly on large-scale systems in transportation, power generation, communication, and gas, water and wastewater distribution, the cost and consequences of failure in these socio-technical systems escalate exponentially. Managers may need improved tools to monitor these interdependent operating systems simultaneously, and adjust and adapt the balance between demand and resources available to manage sudden surges in demand from extreme events. This technology has the potential to benefit communities through helping local governments, nonprofit organizations, and small businesses increase their capacity to manage their continuing exposure to risk, but reduce losses by more informed, effective decision making.

通过该项目开发的决策支持软件是一种新的工具，可以帮助决策者做出明智，有效的决策。该软件工具建立在早期研究的基础上，这些研究探讨了技术系统、组织流程以及影响风险和不确定性管理信息流的物理和社会条件之间的相互作用。该设计方法开发实用的决策模型，使用贝叶斯网络和影响图来评估不确定的条件下，系统识别的组件之间的相互依赖关系的技术，组织和知识系统的特点，紧急操作环境。它集成了计算机编程和模拟设计的技术技能，掌握业务动态和营销，以及对应急管理的背景，政策和限制的理解。该决策支持模块根据实际限制和来自多个来源的近实时信息，确定可供采取行动的选项，并根据经验丰富的应急管理人员的集体判断计算每个选项的成功概率。这种决策支持工具解决了信息流过程中的可扩展性和实时性问题，这些问题阻碍了大规模区域灾害中的组织间决策。对潜在结果进行建模可以系统地使管理人员能够比较更广泛的选择。如果开发成功，这一动态决策支持工具可能对社区管理风险的方式产生变革性影响。随着灾害的数量、类型和严重性在日益依赖于交通、发电、通信以及天然气、水和废水分配等大型系统的全球社会中的增加，这些社会技术系统故障的成本和后果呈指数级上升。管理人员可能需要改进的工具来同时监测这些相互依赖的操作系统，并调整和适应需求与可用资源之间的平衡，以管理极端事件造成的需求突然激增。这项技术有可能通过帮助地方政府、非营利组织和小企业提高管理持续风险的能力，使社区受益，同时通过更明智、更有效的决策减少损失。