RAPID: Scalability and Sustainability in Uncertain Environments: Recovery from the Nepal Earthquakes of April 25 and May 12, 2015

了解灾后恢复过程对于建设抗灾社区至关重要。随着灾害事件发生的频率、成本和范围的增加，将从此类事件中恢复的规划纳入更新的缓解和响应计划的需求也在增加。这种综合努力在市级、县/区/地区、州/省、国家和国际各级政府管辖范围内都是必不可少的。这样的规划将确定加速社区累积暴露于风险的条件，这种暴露可以被中断或减缓的点，以及可以最有效和最迅速地恢复受损社区功能运作的步骤顺序。开发一种可行的灾后社区重建模式是一种全球需求，对新奥尔良这样的美国城市尤其重要，因为在2005年毁灭性的飓风和洪水发生十年后，新奥尔良仍在努力恢复。其他美国城市，如西雅图和洛杉矶，面临着反复发生地震的风险，而迈阿密和休斯顿预计在未来几十年里，破坏性风暴将伴随着海平面上升。查尔斯顿应对飓风和地震风险。随着时间的推移，在不同的经营规模上预测风险的阈值，并规划适当的风险减少和恢复机制，这是设计可持续社区的基本战略，能够抵御灾害，这是国家的当务之急。仔细执行的快速反应研究（Rapid）研究将显示在暴露于持续风险的环境中导致可持续恢复和恢复能力的决策阈值，以及相反，社区累积暴露于风险的风险可能滑向触发其他危害的脆弱条件的阈值，从而导致风险和潜在灾难的加速。先发制人的恢复计划不仅有利于处于危险中的社区，而且有利于整个国家。确定使社区能够以可持续的方式从破坏性事件中快速恢复的标准是一项重大的智力挑战。这项灾害恢复研究将基于尼泊尔地震风险的实际情况，以及将减轻多重灾害风险作为对可持续社区的投资纳入灾害恢复进程所涉及的问题。该研究将从2015年7月1日至2016年6月30日这一年的时间里，将灾后恢复作为一个发生在多个组织和司法决策层面的过程进行研究。它将特别分析信息技术作为社区参与其自身恢复的主要工具的用途。该模型借鉴了组织决策研究的三个主要概念：集体行动，即人们如何学会一起工作；信息系统，或信息如何在人员和组织内部和之间有效流动，以指导知情行动；行动领域，或者价值观和领导力的个人例子如何在不确定的环境中塑造行动。该研究将使用不同的分析方法，包括贝叶斯影响图和系统动力学，来跟踪信息流、影响、技术变革、知识类型、技能水平和表现差距，这些都是灾后恢复社会的特征。该模式经过精心开发，将对面临风险的社区产生全球性影响。

Understanding recovery processes after disaster is critical to building disaster resilient communities. As the frequency, cost, and scope of disaster events increase, the need escalates for incorporating planning for recovery from such events into updated plans for mitigation and response. This integrated effort is essential at all levels of governmental jurisdiction: municipal, county/district/regional, state/provincial, national, and international. Such planning will identify the conditions that accelerate a community's cumulative exposure to risk, the points at which this exposure can be interrupted or slowed, and the sequence of steps that can most effectively and quickly restore a damaged community to functional operation. Developing a viable model for community recovery after disaster represents a global need, one that is especially relevant to US cities like New Orleans that is still struggling with recovery ten years after the devastating hurricane and flood of 2005. Other US cities, like Seattle and Los Angeles, face recurring seismic risk, while Miami and Houston anticipate destructive storms accompanied by sea level rise in the coming decades. Charleston copes with both hurricanes and seismic risk. Anticipating thresholds of risk as they accrue over time at different scales of operation, and planning appropriate mechanisms for risk reduction and recovery are basic strategies for designing sustainable communities that are resilient to hazards, a national imperative. This Rapid Response Research (RAPID) study, carefully executed, will show the threshold points of decision that lead to sustainable recovery and resilience in environments exposed to continuing risk, and, conversely, the points at which a community's cumulative exposure to risk threatens to slide back into vulnerable conditions that trigger other hazards, leading to accelerated risk and potential disaster. Pre-emptive recovery planning will benefit not only the community at risk, but the entire nation.Determining the criteria that enable communities to recover from destructive events quickly in sustainable ways represents a major intellectual challenge. This study of disaster recovery will be based on the actual context of seismic risk in Nepal, and the issues that are involved in incorporating mitigation of multihazard risk into disaster recovery processes as investment for a sustainable community. The study will examine recovery from disaster as a process that occurs at multiple scales of organizational and jurisdictional decision making over a one-year period, from July 1, 2015 to June 30, 2016. It will analyze especially the uses of information technology as a primary tool for engaging communities in their own recovery. The model draws on three major concepts that have informed the study of organizational decision making: collective action, or how people learn to work together; information systems, or how information flows effectively within and among people and organizations to guide informed action; and fields of action, or how values and personal examples of leadership shape actions in uncertain environments. The study will use different methods of analysis, including Bayesian influence diagrams and system dynamics, to track the flow of information, influence, technical change, types of knowledge, level of skills, and gaps in performance that characterize a society recovering from disaster. The model, carefully developed, will have a global impact for communities at risk.