Population consequences of sexually dimorphic responses in a plant species to ongoing and experimental changes in climate

预测生物种群将如何应对它们所经历的气候变化，需要了解生态过程中的小尺度变化如何转化为大尺度的模式。大多数关于生物对环境变化的反应的研究要么记录了整个物种对过去变化的反应的自然模式，要么记录了实验操纵的环境对少数个体表现的影响。前一种方法得益于其现实性，但过于粗糙，无法阐明对气候变化的反应背后的生理反应。后一种方法详细演示了这些机制，但在小空间尺度和人为简化的实验条件下进行。本研究旨在弥合这两种方法，研究在科罗拉多落基山脉的现场气候变化的植物缬草。该物种的个体有不同的性别（即男性或女性），性别对气候变化的反应不同。 研究人员将调查这些可变的，个人层面的气候反应如何扩大，以确定种群动态和物种的持久性。这项工作将在落基山生物实验室（RMBL）进行，使用历史和当代人口统计数据来比较气候变化对空间（1800米海拔梯度）的影响，实验操作（变暖和除雪）之间，以及随着时间的推移（40年的记录）。 这项研究还提供了教育和推广的机会，通过本科生和研究生的科学培训，公民科学的倡议，并通过与RMBL.This研究的合作，以网络为基础的课程的发展询问是否性别介导的生理反应雌雄异株物种的气候变化可以扭曲人口结构（性别比）与由此产生的人口后果。研究人员将使用历史和当代数据构建大小和性别结构的人口统计模型，这些数据涉及（1）历史气候，（2）物种海拔范围内的当代气候，以及（3）实验性变暖和除雪。使用模型选择和生命表响应实验分析，本研究评估的总体后果的空间（1800米海拔），时间（过去与现在）和操纵（现在与模拟未来）的气候变化的人口表现，以及具体的贡献（和生理基础）气候偏态的性别比例。

Predicting how a population of organisms will respond to changes in the climate they experience requires understanding how small-scale changes in ecological processes translate to patterns at broad scales. Most studies of biological responses to environmental change have either documented the natural pattern of whole-species response to past change or, alternatively, the effects of experimentally manipulated environment on the performance of a few individuals. The former approach benefits from its realism, but is too coarse to elucidate the physiological responses underlying the response to changes in climate. The latter approach demonstrates these mechanisms in detail, but does so at small spatial scales and under artificially simplified experimental conditions. This study seeks to bridge these two approaches, studying the responses of the plant Valeriana edulis to climatic variation at field sites in the Colorado Rockies. Individuals of this species have separate sexes (i.e. are either male or female) and the sexes respond differently to changes in climate. The researchers will investigate how these variable, individual-level responses to climate scale up to determine population dynamics and species persistence. This work will be conducted at the Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory (RMBL) using historic and contemporary demographic data to compare the effects of a changing climate over space (an 1800 m elevational gradient), between experimental manipulations (warming and snow removal), and over time (40 year record). This study also provides opportunities for education and outreach through undergraduate and graduate scientific training, citizen science initiatives, and through the development of web-based curricula in collaboration with the RMBL.This research asks whether the sex-mediated physiological response of males and females in dioecious species to changes in climate can skew population structure (sex ratios) with resultant demographic consequences. The researchers will construct size- and sex-structured demographic models using historic and contemporary data on vital rates, mating functions, water use efficiency and primary (seed) sex ratio for populations under (1) historic climate, (2) contemporary climate over the species' elevation range, and (3) experimental warming and snow removal. Using model selection and life table response experiment analyses, this study assesses the overall consequences of spatial (1800 m elevation), temporal (past vs. present) and manipulated (present vs. simulated future) variation in climate for population performance, as well as the specific contribution of (and physiological basis to) climate-skewed sex ratios.