P2C2: Collaborative Research: Past Ocean-Atmosphere Variability from Spatiotemporal Patterns of North Atlantic Climate During the Common Era

北大西洋的气候深刻地影响着邻近的北美和欧洲的人口和生态系统。预计该项目将有助于提高对北大西洋地区年代际和多年代际尺度气候变率的性质和原因及其时空模式的理解，用于建模和预测目的。加强对这一时间尺度的内部气候系统变率的了解，对于十年尺度的预测以及对区域和全球温度趋势的人为成分的可靠探测和归因至关重要。该奖项将通过Lamont Doherty地球观测站正在进行的学生实习计划和伍兹霍尔海洋研究所（WHOI）的合作和客座学生计划，为学生提供早期研究经验。研究人员将利用最新版本的旧世界干旱地图集（OWDA，代表欧洲、北非和中东）和更新且完全兼容的北大西洋干旱地图集（NADA）进行分析，以确定北大西洋盆地两侧大陆之间夏季水文气候变化的耦合模式。这将使用多元工具来完成，包括奇异值分解（SVD）来识别简单的时域耦合模式。带限相参模式的存在性也将使用多锥度奇异值分解方法（MTM-SVD）进行研究，这是一种频域技术。研究小组试图查明干旱地图集中已查明的耦合模式的可能原因，方法是将这些模式的预测系数与覆盖北大西洋盆地和更广泛的全球区域的气候数据场（例如海平面压力或SLP、海表温度或海温）进行比较。研究小组将利用OWDA和NADA提供的夏季水文气候的扩展记录，对已确定的气候强迫在过去一千年中是如何变化和变化的一阶估计，将已确定的强迫预测回中世纪；此外，研究人员将比较OWDA/NADA耦合模式的千年气候强迫预估与CMIP3/CMIP5耦合气候模式运行的相关气候场及其特征变率模式，以确定数据和模式的一致程度。

The climate of the North Atlantic profoundly impacts human populations and ecosystems in adjacent North America and Europe. It is anticipated that this project will help improve understanding of the nature and causes of decadal- and multi-decadal scale climate variability and its spatiotemporal patterns for the North Atlantic sector for modeling and predictive purposes. An enhanced understanding of internal climate system variability at this time scale is critical for decadal-scale prediction, as well as robust detection and attribution of the anthropogenic component of regional and global temperature trends. This award will support early research experiences for students through an ongoing student internship program at Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory and co-operative and Guest student programs at Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI). The researchers will utilize the newest version of the Old World Drought Atlas (OWDA, representing Europe, North Africa, and the Middle East) and an updated and fully compatible version of the North Atlantic Drought Atlas (NADA) in analyses designed to identify coupled modes of summer hydro-climate variability between continents on opposite sides of the North Atlantic Basin. This will be accomplished using multivariate tools including singular value decomposition (SVD) to identify simple time domain coupled modes. The existence of band-limited phase-coherent modes will also be investigated using the Multiple Taper Method with Singular Value Decomposition (MTM-SVD), a frequency domain technique. The research team seeks to identify the likely causes of the identified coupled modes in the drought atlases by comparing the projection coefficients of those modes against fields of climate data covering the North Atlantic Basin and for more extensive global regions (e.g., sea-level pressure or SLP, sea surface temperature or SST). The research team will project the identified forcings back to medieval times using the extended records of summer hydro-climate provided by the OWDA and NADA to produce first-order estimates of how the identified climate forcings have varied and changed over the past millennium; andFurthermore, the researchers will compare the millennium-length climate forcing projections of the OWDA/NADA coupled modes against relevant climate fields and their characteristic modes of variability from the suite of CMIP3/CMIP5 coupled climate model runs to determine the degree to which data and models agree.