Resolving the effects of heterogeneity and technological progress on carbon mitigation costs

[1605319] eric williams，了解减少碳排放的成本对于规划社会应对气候变化至关重要。碳干预具有广泛的可持续性效益，因为与能源有关的环境排放和资源挑战也得到缓解。市场异质性和技术进步是影响缓解成本的重要因素，但人们对其了解甚少。在许多能源系统分析中，一项技术的所有采用者都被认为是平均的。然而，不同的采用者所获得的好处往往存在很大的差异。如果缓解工作侧重于最有效的子群体，缓解成本可以大大降低。此外，如果技术进步迅速，有利群体的采用可以刺激成本降低，使该技术对其他消费者更具吸引力。在本研究中，将为美国开发一个新的边际消减成本曲线（MACC），该曲线考虑了异质性和技术进步。边际减排成本曲线将干预措施从最小到最高的减排成本排序，并结合假设广泛采用的每种技术的总减排潜力。边际减排成本曲线提供了对缓解方案的优先次序和相对潜力的洞察，并广泛用于国家、州和城市层面的政策论述。新的MACC曲线涵盖了住宅和商业建筑、交通和可再生能源领域的技术干预。将分析地理、行为和技术存量方面的异质性。地理异质性的例子包括风能资源的可得性和建筑中与气候相关的供暖和制冷需求的可变性。行为异质性包括恒温器设置和电器使用模式。库存异质性是指当前设备或基础设施效率的差异。将通过聚类分析来管理不同异质性的复杂性，以确定具有相似特征的采用者子组。成本降低的预测将采用回顾性预测方法，主要是经验曲线。使用聚类分析等现代数据分析技术，可以将几个联邦微观数据集整合到具有不同缓解成本的技术采用者子组中。考虑到在异质市场中采用的先后顺序，再加上技术进步，可以对可能降低的缓解成本有新的认识。考虑异质性和技术进步的重要性超出了边际减排曲线，因为这些因素也影响综合能源经济模型的结果，如国家能源建模系统（NEMS）。减少碳排放的成本是一项关键的可持续性挑战。尽管这个问题很重要，但对减排成本的处理通常忽略了重要的异质性。将异质性与技术进步降低后期采用者成本的潜力结合起来，应该会揭示降低缓解成本的重大机会，这可以直接为美国的气候和能源政策提供信息。为了让相关社区参与进来，将组织两次讲习班。第一次研讨会将与美国能源经济协会的年度会议相邻举行，将有学术界、咨询公司和公用事业公司参加。第二次研讨会将在华盛顿特区为决策者举行。描述异构性的数据集将引起能源建模社区的普遍兴趣，并将通过互联网免费分发。一群来自弱势群体的高中生将参加一个夏令营，内容涉及能源问题和职业。通过开发在线模块和通过可持续工程中心传播，将接触到更广泛的学生和教师群体。

1605319Williams, EricUnderstanding the cost of mitigating carbon emissions is critical in planning societal responses to climate change. Carbon interventions have broad sustainability benefits since energy-related environmental emissions and resource challenges are also mitigated. Market heterogeneity and technological progress are important but poorly understood factors in mitigation cost. In many energy system analyses, all adopters of a technology are considered the same as an average one. However, there is often large heterogeneity in benefits to different adopters. If mitigation efforts are focused on the most effective sub-groups, mitigation costs can be significantly lower. In additional, if technological progress is rapid, adoption by favorable subgroups can stimulate cost reductions, making the technology more attractive to other consumers. In this research, a new Marginal Abatement Cost Curve (MACC) will be developed for the United States that accounts for heterogeneity and technological progress. A Marginal Abatement Cost Curve orders interventions from least to highest mitigation cost combined with the total mitigation potential for each technology assuming wide adoption. Marginal Abatement Costs Curves provide insight into prioritization and relative potential of mitigation options and are widely used in policy discourses at national, state, and city levels. The new MACC curve covers technological interventions from residential and commercial buildings, transportation and renewable energy sectors. Heterogeneities in geography, behavior and technology stock will be are analyzed. Examples of geographical heterogeneity include availability of wind resources and climate-related variability of heating and cooling demand in buildings. Behavioral heterogeneity includes thermostat settings and usage patterns of appliances. Stock heterogeneity refers to variation in the efficiency of current equipment or infrastructure. The complexity of different heterogeneities will be managed through cluster analysis to identify adopter subgroups with similar characteristics. Cost reductions will be predicted with retrospective forecasting approaches, mainly experience curves. Use of modern data analysis techniques such as cluster analysis enables the integration of several federal micro-data sets into technology adopter subgroups with distinct mitigation costs. Accounting for the sequencing of adoption in heterogeneous markets combined with technological progress leads to new insights into potential reductions in mitigation costs. Accounting for heterogeneity and technological progress is important beyond marginal abatement curves, as these factors also affect results of integrated energy-economic models such as the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). The cost of mitigating carbon is a critical sustainability challenge. Despite the importance of this question, treatment of abatement costs routinely neglect important heterogeneities. Combining heterogeneity with the potential of technological progress to reduce costs for later adopters should reveal significant opportunities to lower mitigation costs, which can directly inform US climate and energy policies. To engage relevant communities, two workshops will be organized. The first workshop will be held adjacent to the annual conference of the U.S. Association for Energy Economics, and will engage academia, consulting firms and utilities. The second workshop will be held in Washington D.C. for policy decision makers. The dataset that describes heterogeneities will be of general interest to the energy modeling community and will be distributed freely via the Internet. A high school cohort from underrepresented groups will be engaged in a summer camp covering energy issues and careers. Broader groups of students and faculty will be reached through development of online modules and dissemination through the Center for Sustainable Engineering.