Collaborative Research: Numerical and Probabilistic Modeling of Aboveground Storage Tanks Subjected to Multi-Hazard Storm Events

用于储存危险物质（如原油）的地上储罐（ast）在严重的风暴中可能遭受重大破坏，导致泄漏，造成灾难性的社会、环境和经济后果。这些结构的失效可归因于漂浮、屈曲或碎片损坏。尽管有大量证据表明储罐的脆弱性和失效的后果，但对多种风暴诱发的危险（如浪涌、波浪、风）下导致AST失效的机制的理解是有限的。这项研究将通过提供能够捕捉复杂流固相互作用（FSI）和非线性系统行为的数值模型来解决这些空白，这些系统行为是由ast在多危险载荷下表现出来的。此外，将开发严重风暴中储罐性能的概率模型，填补这一关键工业和能源基础设施风险评估方面的主要空白。美国国家科学基金会支持的自然灾害工程研究基础设施（NHERI）网络基础设施DesignSafe-CI.org的先进计算资源、协作和分析工具将在这项工作中得到利用和加强。通过这项研究，将提供开放源代码和概率工具，以更好地了解公众暴露于具有深远环境和社会影响的危险泄漏的风险。为了支持减少风险的努力，研究了避免此类泄漏的可行战略，并向除科学界外的相关利益攸关方传播。除了为自然灾害工程社区提供开源计算机模型外，该项目还将提供DesignSafe-CI功能的培训材料和示范应用，可用于网络基础设施研究的教育和社区推广。该项目将利用跨计算科学和结构工程的多学科团队的协同作用，提供多流条件下AST响应的强大数值模型，并随后推导出多种风暴诱发危险下AST脆弱性的第一个模型。该项目的研究和教育目标包括：1)FSI的高级数值模拟，重点是浪涌、波浪和风对ast的影响；2)建立了存在局部缺陷和全局缺陷的多危险浮选和屈曲脆性模型；3)使用已开发的数值和概率模型对坦克组合进行案例分析，并传播经验教训；4)为自然灾害工程界开发基于网络基础设施的多学科团队学习模块。为了实现这些目标，将开发开源的多物理场软件，以捕获复杂的多相流场景，并允许通过局部FSI响应建模对区域风暴模拟进行简化分析。所得到的代码的数值模拟将为ast在浪涌、波浪和风的作用下的响应提供新的见解，并能够在一系列不确定的危险和结构参数下进行浮选和屈曲破坏模式的敏感性和脆弱性分析。考虑到模拟相关AST行为的计算复杂性，将基于FSI数值模拟推导出统计代理模型。该策略有望首次实现对风暴潮、波浪和风作用下的风暴潮易损性建模进行有效的极限状态分析，并解决风暴潮风险评估的主要空白。由此产生的参数化配方将适用于敏感性分析，并准备应用于储罐基础设施组合，这将通过德克萨斯州休斯顿地区的案例研究进行测试。

Aboveground storage tanks (ASTs) used to store hazardous materials, such as crude oil, can suffer major damage in severe storms resulting in spills with catastrophic social, environmental, and economic consequences. Failure of these structures has been attributed to flotation, buckling, or damage from debris. Despite significant evidence of tank vulnerability and consequences of failure, understanding of the mechanisms leading to AST failure under multiple storm-induced hazards (e.g., surge, wave, wind) is limited. This research will address such gaps by providing numerical models that are capable of capturing the complex fluid-structure interaction (FSI) and nonlinear system behavior exhibited by ASTs under multi-hazard loads. Furthermore, probabilistic models of tank performance in severe storms will be developed, filling a major gap in risk assessment of this critical industrial and energy infrastructure. The advanced computational resources and collaboration and analysis tools of the National Science Foundation-supported Natural Hazards Engineering Research Infrastructure (NHERI) cyberinfrastructure, DesignSafe-CI.org, will be utilized and enhanced in this effort. Through this research, open source codes and probabilistic tools will be provided to better understand the public's risk of being exposed to hazardous spills with far reaching environmental and social impacts. To support risk reduction efforts, viable strategies to avoid such spills are investigated and disseminated to relevant stakeholders in addition to the scientific community. Along with the contribution of open source computer models to the natural hazards engineering community, this project will provide training materials and demonstration applications of DesignSafe-CI functionalities that can be used for education and community outreach on cyberinfrastructure-enabled research.This project will harness the synergies of a multi-disciplinary team spanning computational sciences and structural engineering to provide robust numerical models of AST response under multi-flow conditions and to subsequently derive the first models of AST fragility under multiple storm-induced hazards. The project's research and educational objectives include: 1) advanced numerical modeling of FSI with emphasis on surge, wave, and wind impacts on ASTs; 2) derivation of multi-hazard flotation and buckling fragility models for ASTs in the presence of local and global imperfections; 3) case study analysis of a portfolio of tanks with the developed numerical and probabilistic models and dissemination of lessons learned; and 4) development of learning modules on cyberinfrastructure-enabled multi-disciplinary teaming for the natural hazards engineering community. To meet these objectives, open source, multi-physics software will be developed to capture complicated multi-phase flow scenarios and also allow for streamlined analysis of regional storm simulations with localized FSI response modeling. Numerical simulation with the resulting codes will provide new insight into the response of ASTs subjected to surge, wave, and wind and enable sensitivity and fragility analysis for flotation and buckling failure modes across a range of uncertain hazard and structural parameters. Given the computational complexity of simulating associated AST behavior, statistical surrogate models will be derived based on the numerical FSI simulations. This strategy is expected to render efficient limit state analysis for fragility modeling of ASTs feasible for the first time under surge, wave, and wind and address a major gap in risk assessment of ASTs. The resulting parameterized formulations will be amenable to sensitivity analyses and ready application to a portfolio of tank infrastructure, which will be tested through a case study in the Houston, Texas region.