High Resolution Earth System Modeling for International Climate Assessment

伊利诺伊大学和美国国家大气研究中心（NCAR）之间的这项合作研究旨在利用蓝水千万亿资源来解决与地球气候系统数值模拟相关的关键不确定性问题，以及准确分析过去和预测未来气候变化的能力。该项目汇集了一组科学家，他们在研究过去和未来的气候预测方面具有公认的专业知识，在国家和国际气候变化评估方面具有丰富的经验，并汇集了计算机科学和信息技术专家，以解决这些问题。千兆级的计算能力将使该项目能够以以前不可能的方式追求极端气候和分析不确定性，允许完成非常高分辨率的大气和海洋完全耦合的气候模拟，这一任务需要大量的计算分配，只有在像蓝水这样的千兆级系统上才能实现。该项目有两个目的，由所采用的模型分辨率来区分。这两种气候模型的模拟都将采用美国国家科学基金会-美国能源部社区地球系统模型（CESM）的高级版本进行。CESM是世界上最好的地球气候系统模型之一，由NCAR与大学和国家实验室的一群科学家合作开发。第一个目的是通过运行一个世纪的高分辨率（0.25度大气/陆地，1度海洋/海冰）全球耦合气候模拟，包括20世纪和未来情景的多个集合成员，更好地量化未来区域气候变化，重点关注极端气候。第二个目的将是在项目现有的蓝水分配的基础上进行具体研究，通过更高分辨率的气候模拟（0.25度大气/陆地，0.1度海洋/海冰）进一步阐明小尺度区域特征和跨空间尺度气候相互作用的影响，这将推动最先进的分析。

This collaborative research between the University of Illinois and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) is aimed at using the Blue Waters petascale resources to address key uncertainties associated with the numerical modeling of the Earth's climate system and the ability to accurately analyze past and projected future changes in climate. The project brings together a team of scientists to address these issues with well-recognized expertise in the study of past and future projections of climate and extensive experience in national and international assessments of climate change, as well as experts in computer science and information technology. The petascale computing capabilities will allow the project to pursue climate extremes and analysis of uncertainties in ways that were impossible before by allowing for completion of very high resolution atmosphere and ocean fully-coupled climate simulations, a task that requires a large computing allocation only achievable on petascale systems like Blue Waters. This project has two purposes distinguished by the model resolution to be employed. Both climate model simulations will be conducted with an advanced version of the NSF-DOE Community Earth System Model (CESM). CESM, one of the world's best models of Earth's climate system, has been developed by NCAR in coordination with a community of scientists at universities and national laboratories. The first purpose is aimed at better quantifying future regional climate change, focusing on climate extremes, by running century-long, high-resolution (0.25 degree atmosphere/land, 1 degree ocean/sea ice) global coupled climate simulations, including multiple ensemble members of 20th Century and future scenarios. The second purpose will be specific studies that grow upon the project's existing Blue Water's allocation to further clarify the effects of small-scale regional features and interactions across spatial scales in climate through even higher-resolution climate simulations (0.25 degree atmosphere/land, 0.1 degree ocean/sea ice) that will push the state-of-the-art for such analysis.