Long Term Human Response To Sea Level Change

Mark Golitko博士（圣母大学）将与巴布亚新几内亚（PNG）的同事一起对巴布亚新几内亚的北海岸进行环境和考古调查，以评估生活在那里的人们如何应对全新世中期（约7000-3000年前）的快速气候和环境变化。沿海居民特别容易受到环境变化和自然灾害的影响，例如热带风暴和海啸。预计在未来几个世纪中，环境变异性的增加和海平面的上升将使许多这样的社区处于危险之中，增加了社会动荡的可能性，并可能使贫穷的沿海地区大规模移民。预测的气候变化与全新世中期发生的气候变化类似，当时全球气候略微变暖，淹没了许多沿海地区。新几内亚北部海岸沿着一个地震和海啸频繁的构造活动区，并受到厄尔尼诺-南方涛动周期的影响，造成干旱和极端降雨的交替年份。在全新世中期，ENSO循环加剧，与此同时，开发的沿海平原可能支持了人口的增加。目前，生活在西南太平洋沿海地区的人们利用各种风险管理战略，包括种植西米棕榈等具有复原力的树木作物，并保持广泛的社会联系，以便在需要时加以利用。拟议的研究将考察巴布亚新几内亚北海岸的人们如何应对全新世中期不同程度的生态风险，包括植树的古老性、社交网络的范围以及相对的人口水平。研究小组将采用土壤取芯和考古调查及挖掘相结合的战略。土壤取样将确定环境的变化，包括古代海啸事件的证据。核心样本（花粉、木炭）的环境指标将用于审查人口水平的相对变化和人类对森林组成的影响程度，包括促进西米等经济作物的种植。考古调查和挖掘岩石庇护所和沿着边缘的古代泻湖将检查土地使用的强度，并提供证据的运输物质文化，表明古代社交网络。全新世中期是一个流动性增加的时期，在此期间，新的思想和实践开始在西南太平洋广泛传播。研究结果将表明人们在快速气候变化的背景下如何强烈地利用景观，他们在减轻生态风险方面有多成功，人口增长有多快，以及这些生态变化在多大程度上促进了更广泛的西南太平洋地区的流动性。该项目将作为今后几个世纪类似沿海地区气候和环境变化预期结果的测试案例。该项目还将产生新的古代气候数据集，用于了解厄尔尼诺/南方涛动周期和气候变化的长期模式，以及了解人类在热带森林组成和养护方面的作用。此外，该项目将为新几内亚考古学家和美国本科生和研究生提供培训。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

Dr. Mark Golitko (University of Notre Dame), with colleagues in Papua New Guinea (PNG), will conduct combined environmental and archaeological survey on the north coast of PNG to assess how people living there responded to rapid climatic and environmental changes during the mid-Holocene period (~7000-3000 years ago). Coastal dwellers are particularly vulnerable to environmental variability and natural disasters, for instance tropical storms and tsunamis. Anticipated increase in environmental variability and rising sea-levels during the coming centuries place many such communities at risk, increasing the likelihood of social unrest and potentially large scale migration out of poorer coastal areas. Predicted climatic changes are analogous to those that occurred during the mid-Holocene period, when marginally warmer global climate inundated many coastal areas. The north coast of New Guinea lies along a tectonically active zone with frequent earthquakes and resultant tsunamis, and is affected by the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, which produces alternating years of drought and extreme rains. The ENSO cycle intensified during the mid-Holocene at the same time that developing coastal flats may have supported increasing populations. At present, people living in coastal areas of the Southwestern Pacific utilize a variety of risk management strategies, including growing resilient tree crops such as sago palm, and maintaining wide-ranging social ties that can be drawn upon in times of need. The proposed research will examine how people on the north coast of PNG coped with varying levels of ecological risk during the mid-Holocene period, including the antiquity of tree-cropping, extent of social networks, and relative human population levels. The research team will use a combined strategy of soiling coring and archaeological survey and excavation. Soil coring will establish changes in environment including evidence of ancient tsunami events. Environmental indicators from core samples (pollen, charcoal) will be used to examine relative changes in population levels and the degree of human impact on forest composition, including the promotion of economic crops like sago palms. Archaeological survey and excavations in rock shelters and along the edges of ancient lagoons will examine the intensity of land use and provide evidence for transport of material culture, indicative of ancient social networks. The mid-Holocene was a period of increased mobility during which time new ideas and practices began to widely circulate in the Southwestern Pacific. Results will indicate how intensely people used the landscape in the context of rapid climatic shifts, how successful they were at mitigating ecological risk, how rapidly population grew, and to what extent these ecological changes may have promoted mobility in the broader Southwestern Pacific. The project will serve as a test case for anticipated outcomes of climatic and environmental change during the coming centuries in similar coastal areas. The project will also generate new ancient climate datasets of use for understanding the ENSO cycle and long-term patterns of climatic variability, as well as understanding the human role in tropical forest composition and conservation. Additionally, the project will provide training to New Guinean archaeologists and US undergraduate and graduate students.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.