Analysis of coastal zone development trough space/time modelling

拟议项目的目标是开发一个模型来描述波罗的海南部下沉海岸的地理、生态和社会经济系统之间的相互作用。要研究的时间跨度包括从公元前8000年利托里纳海侵开始的过去一千年和未来几个世纪。定性和定量数据，如沉积物记录、考古发现、海平面标志以及在SINCOS期间和拟议项目中获得的日期材料，将在数据库驱动的GIS中进行组合，并作为古情景和预测情景的代理数据。除了SINCOS开发的海侵-回归模型外，泥沙输运模块将增强这些研究的意义，该模块整合了屏障喷口和泻湖等海岸形态的演变。将在区域范围内对波罗的海南部进行调查，并在维斯马湾和r<s:1>根岛两个地方框架内进行调查，揭示由分离的达尔斯海峡控制的海侵历史。此外，对于预测情景，关于地壳均衡响应的信息和描述海平面上升的气候模拟数据可作为模拟的输入。结果将以情景图的形式提供，这将有助于协助沿海地区的管理。

The target of the proposed project is the development of a model to describe the interactions between geo-, eco-, and socio-economic systems for the sinking coasts of the southern Baltic Sea. Time span to be investigated comprises the past millenia since the beginning of the Littorina transgression at 8000 BC and future centuries. Qualitative and quantitative data like sediment records, archaeological findings, sea level marker, and dated material acquired during SINCOS and within the proposed project will be assembled within a database driven GIS and serve as proxy data for palaeo and predictive scenarios. In addition to the transgression-regression model developed in SINCOS a sediment transport module will enhance the significance of these studies integrating the evolution of coastal forms like barrier spits and lagoons. Investigations will be carried out at a regional scale for the southern Baltic Sea, and within two local frames, the Wismar Bight and the Island of Rügen, revealing the transgression history controlled by the separating Darss Sill. Additionally, for predictive scenarios information about isostatic response of the earths crust and climate modelling data describing eustatic sea level rise serve as input for modelling. Results will be delivered as scenario maps which shall provide assistance assisting in coastal zone management.