Assessing the Impacts of Coastal Flood-Induced Relocation on Local Jurisdictions

这个跨学科项目研究沿海社区搬迁对当地司法管辖的影响。它将提供有关沿海地区因洪水导致的人口减少可能造成的后果的数据，包括社会文化特征和经济生存能力的丧失。这些信息对于支持地方进行政策改革是必不可少的，这些政策改革将最大限度地减少洪水引起的重新安置对其治理和机构绩效的不利影响。该项目通过推进沿海社区新兴问题的科学研究，为国家利益服务，沿海社区的恢复能力对国家安全、稳定和福利至关重要。通过将高度脆弱的沿海社区（例如农村渔村和城市贫困人口）纳入其中，还可以实现其社会效益，这些社区已经经历了可能加剧其脆弱性的各种社会经济和环境挑战。研究结果和补充材料将通过一个在线门户网站发布，旨在促进研究人员、从业人员和其他对沿海复原力感兴趣的利益相关者的社区。弗吉尼亚合作推广计划将加强推广工作，该计划在农村社区教育方面有着悠久的历史。这个跨学科项目的目标是提高对沿海洪水引发的重新安置对具有不同社会经济、文化、制度和历史背景的地方司法管辖区可能产生的后果的科学理解。它将在农村和城市环境中建立不同时间尺度的沿海洪水驱动的重新安置情景，以辨别这一过程对当地司法管辖区的社会经济可行性的潜在影响。这种混合方法将依靠定量和定性数据来捕捉通常影响当地决策的背景影响和复杂性。项目活动将包括：1)研究沿海洪水的风险，制定可能造成商业、房地产和相应人口损失的时空洪水暴露情景；2)通过入户调查确定洪水易发地区居民对迁移目的地的偏好；3)利用Agent Based Modeling （ABM）识别突发的迁移行为宏观趋势。该分析将应用于马里兰州东海岸和弗吉尼亚州汉普顿路两个具有不同城市化水平的对比案例研究地点。研究策略的重要方面包括地理学、沿海和系统工程、商业分析的跨学科整合，以及可能影响沿海受洪水影响的周边地区迁移程度和进展的环境的整体分析。该项目最终将使人们更好地了解物理、行为和制度因素如何相互作用，在日益增加的洪水风险下塑造沿海社区的演变，从而使沿海地区的社区更具弹性。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

This interdisciplinary project studies the impacts of relocation in coastal communities on local jurisdictions. It will provide data about possible consequences of flood-driven depopulation of coastal jurisdictions, including the loss of sociocultural identity and economic viability. This information is imperative to support localities in policy changes that would minimize the adverse effects of flood-induced relocation on their governance and institutional performance. This project serves national interests by advancing science on emerging problems in coastal communities whose resilience is vital for national security, stability, and welfare. Its societal benefits are also achieved by including highly vulnerable coastal communities (e.g. rural fishing villages and urban poor), which are already experiencing various socioeconomic and environmental challenges that may compound their vulnerability. Results and supplemental materials will be disseminated via an online web portal designed to facilitate a community of researchers, practitioners, and other stakeholders interested in coastal resilience. Outreach will be enhanced by the Virginia Cooperative Extension, which has a long history of education in rural communities. The goal of this interdisciplinary project is to improve the scientific understanding of possible consequences of coastal flood-induced relocation on local jurisdictions with diverse socio-economic, cultural, institutional, and historic contexts. It will establish scenarios of coastal flood-driven relocation over different time scales in both rural and urban settings to discern potential implications of this process on the socioeconomic viability of local jurisdictions. This mixed-methods approach will rely on both quantitative and qualitative data to capture the contextual influences and complexities that typically shape local decision-making. The project activities will: 1) examine the risk of coastal flooding and develop spatiotemporal flood exposure scenarios of potential loss of businesses, real-estate, and corresponding population; 2) determine preferences for relocation destination among residents living in flood-prone areas obtained via household surveys, and 3) discern emergent macro-scale trends in relocation behavior using Agent Based Modeling (ABM). The analysis will be applied to two contrasting case study locations with different levels of urbanization on the Eastern Shore, Maryland, and in Hampton Roads, Virginia. Important aspects of the research strategy include interdisciplinary integration of geography, coastal and system engineering, and business analytics, as well as holistic analysis of circumstances that may affect the extent and progression of relocation from coastal flood-affected periphery. This project will ultimately lead to improved understanding of how physical, behavioral, and institutional factors interact to shape the evolution of coastal communities under increasing flood risks, thereby leading to more resilient communities in the coastal zone.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.