Extreme Effects of Uncertainty on Social Learning: An Investigation of Endogenously Limited Communication, Skepticism, and Biased Beliefs

这项研究项目将使用经济学理论和实验来研究不确定性如何影响社会学习和网络交流。社会学习，如公共卫生公告、政治广告和政府计划公告中出现的学习，对于现代民主社会的运作极其重要。了解促进或阻碍社会学习的因素也有助于经济科学有效地制定政策，从而提高开放民主社会的生活水平。拟议的研究由三个相互关联的项目组成。第一个项目调查不确定性如何影响群体内部和群体之间的沟通；第二个项目将研究不确定性是否影响信任接受者，他们收到的信息是否会受到信任，以及这如何影响沟通；第三个项目将研究偏见信息的接受者是否会改变他们的信念，以回应这些偏见信息并将这些偏见传递给其他人。这一研究项目将有助于改善商业沟通、公共政策辩论、广告和社会学习的几个应用领域，因为它就如何最好地制定和传播有效的信息以及什么可能阻碍有效的社会学习提供指导。这项研究的结果将极其重要，特别是在需要明确沟通的紧急情况下。该研究项目还包括对研究生进行尖端经济研究方法的培训，从而为美国在高水平经济研究中的全球领先地位做出贡献。该研究项目将使用理论建模和现场实验来研究引入噪音如何影响社交网络中的沟通。具体地说，PI将研究网络中的个人如何处理噪音，以及这如何影响网络中社交学习中的信息聚合和传播。本研究由三部分组成。这第一部分将调查不确定性的引入如何以一种解释信息本身预期价值变化的方式减少内生沟通。第二个项目将研究噪音是否影响信任代理人在他们收到的信息中所包含的信号中，以及这如何影响交流。该模型结合了个人内部和人际间的信念(对其他群体的偏见)如何影响网络中的信息传输。第三个项目将研究接受者是否认识到传递给他们的有偏见的(经审查的)信息，以及他们是否将这些偏见纳入他们的信仰中。这一研究项目的结果不仅将对社会学习和网络经济学的文献做出重大贡献，而且还将有助于改善社会沟通。结果将为在商业、政治、经济和公共政策中制定更好的信息提供投入。这一奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

This research project will use economic theory and experiments to study how uncertainty affects social learning and affects communication in networks. Social learning, such as those that occur in public health announcements, political advertising and government program announcements is extremely important for the functioning of a modern democratic society. Understanding factors that improves or impede social learning contributes to economic science as well to efficient policy making and therefore improve the living standards in open democratic societies. The proposed research consists of three interrelated projects. The first project investigates how uncertainty affects communication within and among groups; the second will study whether uncertainty affects the trust recipients put in the information they receive and how this affects communication, while the third project will study whether recipients of biased information change their beliefs in response to this biased information and pass those biases on to others. This research project will contribute to improving business communication, public policy debates, advertising and several applied areas of social learning as it provides guidance on how best to craft and communicate effective messages and what may impede effective social learning. The results of this research will extremely important especially in emergencies when clear communication is needed. The research project also involves training graduate students in cutting edge economic research methods, thus contributing to the US global leadership in high caliber economic research.This research project will use both theoretical modelling and field experiments to study how the introduction of noise affects communication in social networks. Specifically, the PIs will study how individuals in a network deal with noise and how this affects information aggregation and diffusion in social learning within a network. The proposed research consists of three parts. This first part will investigate how the introduction of uncertainty reduces endogenous communication in a way that accounts for the changing expected value of the information itself. The second project will study whether noise affects the trust agents place in the signals contained in the information they receive and how this affects communication. The model incorporate how intrapersonal and interpersonal beliefs (biases towards other groups) affect the transmission of information within a network. The third project will study whether recipients recognize biased (censored) information passed on to them and whether they incorporate these biases into their beliefs. The results of this research project will not only significantly contribute to the literature on social learning and network economics but also lead to improved social communication. The results will provide inputs into crafting better messaging in business, politics, economics, and public policy.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.