Sustainable freight transport in urban areasImpact assessment by system dynamics based freight transport models

该研究项目的总体目标是开发一种表示、评估和模拟城市货运的方法。这种方法不仅可以进行临时的准时分析，还可以进行长期预测。到目前为止，公共当局还没有普遍有效的运输政策文书来有效地控制和规划货运。因此，将提供这一领域的测量方法，最重要的是将其未来的可持续性评估方法。研究项目的目的是将系统动力学与宏观的集聚货运模型和微观的非集聚货运模型联系起来。这种方法的优点是将系统动力学方法的预测能力与运输模拟的细节分辨率联系起来。在完整的系统动力学模型中，将详细分析整个系统中相互关联的运输政策、物流、生产和社会或消费者等子系统。各个子系统之间的依赖关系和相互关系将通过系统动力学模型中选定的参数来表征。将在一系列措施中总结可持续的概念。这些交通政策措施将在不同的场景下进行测试和模拟。通过将系统动力学模型与货运模型联系起来，将在基础设施水平上与货运模型一起模拟先前在一段时间内分析的措施的效果。在此过程中，系统动力学的结果将传递给交通服务内部的运输需求。两个子模型交换数据，这是另一个模型的下一个模拟步骤所需的。这就产生了城市货运的迭代优化过程，优化的目标是一个稳定的系统，一方面在交通服务和运输需求之间建立一个可持续的折衷，另一方面在生态、社会和经济利益之间建立一个可持续的折衷。

The overarching objective of the research project is to develop a methodology to represent, assess and simulate urban freight transport. This methodology enables not only to perform temporarily punctual analyses, but rather long-term forecasts. So far no generally valid transport policy instrument is available to public authorities to efficiently control and plan freight transport. Therefore, measurements will be provided in this field and most importantly their future sustainability will be evaluated by the methodology.The research project aims at linking system dynamics with a macroscopic aggregate freight transport model on the one hand and on the other hand with a microscopic disaggregate freight transport model. The advantage of this approach is to link the forecast capability of the System Dynamics method with the detail resolution of transport simulation. In the complete system dynamics model the subsystems transport policy, logistics, production and society or consumer, which relate to one another in the whole system, will be analyses in detail. The dependencies and interrelationships between the individual subsystems will be characterized by selected parameters within the system dynamics model. Sustainable concepts will be summarized in a catalogue of measures. These transport policy measures will be tested und simulated in different scenarios. By linking up the system dynamics model with the freight transport models, the effect of measures, which were analyzed previously over the course of time, will be simulated on an infrastructural level with the freight transport models. In the process, the results of system dynamics will be transferred to the transport demand within the traffic services. Both sub-models exchange data, which are required for the next simulation step of the other model. This gives rise to an iterative optimizing process of the urban freight transport.Target of the optimization is a stable system, which establishes a sustainable compromise between traffic service and transport demand on the one hand and on the other hand between ecological, social and economic, interests.