RAPID: Factors that affect understanding the risks of COVID-19

很大一部分美国人还没有清楚地认识到新冠肺炎病毒的威胁。许多人迟迟没有采取有助于减轻大流行风险的态度和行为。在病毒引起的所有宣传下，怎么会这样呢？研究人员假设，这些未能改变态度和行为的因素源于三个因素：未能意识到这种疾病的影响，未能意识到它将以多快的速度传播，以及未能意识到它将对医疗保健系统造成的可怕后果。在这项研究中，研究人员将检查这些失败背后的因素，以及改善与新冠肺炎相关的信息传递的方法。改善沟通和理解的结果和建议有望迅速广泛传播。为了探索如何提高对新冠肺炎风险的理解，这两位经验丰富的跨学科团队提出了三条研究路线。他们将研究：(A)呈现有关疾病扩散的信息的不同方式如何影响人们对其发病率和死亡率的估计，以及预期的未来社会行为；(B)个人和国家之间在人口和特征维度上的个体差异将如何影响他们对疾病传播的估计；以及(C)人们如何推理疾病对医疗体系生存能力的影响。方法将包括测量预测疾病风险和后果的能力，以及作为几个变量的函数的“扁平曲线”的影响，包括信息呈现方式、计算、动机、健康状况和其他人口统计和特征变量。这一奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

The threat of the COVID-19 virus has not been clearly understood by a substantial portion of the U.S. population. Many people have been slow to adopt attitudes and behaviors that will serve to mitigate the risks of the pandemic. With all the publicity that the virus has engendered, how can this be so? The researchers hypothesize that these failures to change attitude and behavior stem from three factors: failures to realize the impact that this disease has, failures to realize how quickly it will be transmitted, and failures to appreciate the dire consequences it will have on the health care system. In this study, the researcher will examine factors underlying these failures and ways to improve delivery of information relevant to COVID-19. Results and suggestions for improving communication and comprehension are expected to be disseminated widely and expeditiously.In order to investigate ways of improving the understanding of the risks involving COVID-19, the researchers, a highly experienced and inter-disciplinary team, propose three lines of research. They will examine (a) how different ways of presenting information about the proliferation of the disease affects people’s estimates of its incidence and rates of death, as well as intended future social behavior, (b) how individual differences among individuals and countries along demographic and trait dimensions will influence their estimates of the spread of the disease, and (c) how people are reasoning about the impact of the disease on the viability of the healthcare system. Methods will include measuring the ability to predict risk and consequences of the disease as well as the impact of “flattening the curve” as functions of several variables, including mode of information presentation, numeracy, motivation, health status, and other demographic and trait variables.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.