Larval orientation, dispersal and connectivity in a brachyuran crab under ocean acidification and elevated temperature

该奖项全部或部分由2021年美国救援计划法案（公法117-2）资助。石蟹渔业是佛罗里达的一个价值数百万美元的商业产业，鉴于预测的气候变化和极端天气事件的预测增加，这可能是不可持续的。石蟹幼体的游泳行为和存活率受到pH值降低（海洋酸化）和温度升高的负面影响。预计这些情况将在佛罗里达西海岸沿着变得更加普遍和普遍，并可能影响幼虫的供应，这些幼虫将定居并补充未捕捞和捕捞的种群。幼虫扩散的变化可能导致招募失败;然而，目前尚不清楚这种结果的程度。本研究的目标是建立预测未来气候情景下佛罗里达石蟹的丰度和分布的模型。实验室实验正在量化温度和pH值如何影响幼虫存活率和行为。实验室研究的结果正在与洋流和化学信息结合起来，纳入一个生物物理模型。该模型通过将物理和化学环境的预测与气候引起的幼虫行为变化相结合，预测气候变化对石蟹种群的影响。更广泛的影响包括与石蟹和其他沿海甲壳类渔业的可持续管理、本科生和研究生的培训机会以及教育推广的相关性。课程开发正在与标题-1学校合作进行，高中学生正在开发短片，以进入佛罗里达南方学院的海洋科学电影节。在许多沿海栖息地，海洋酸化（OA）正在加速发生相对于世纪末的预测，主要是由于局部湿地退化，径流增加和富营养化，预测海洋物种未来持久性和沿海渔业可持续性的能力取决于了解酸化和温度升高的综合影响如何影响种群的连通性和补充。即使是微小的变化，在寄生虫幼虫的生存，行为，或扩散可能导致大的人口变化;然而，预测这些变化需要了解生物体的生物学背景下的物理和化学环境正在发生变化。当暴露在类似于世纪末预期的pH值降低和温度升高的条件下时，一些幼虫不仅死亡率增加，而且它们还改变了它们的游泳行为，这反过来又改变了它们在沿海海洋中的扩散。这项研究是量化OA和高温对短尾纲甲壳动物石蟹的扩散和连接的综合影响。受控实验室研究测量pH和温度变化对幼虫垂直游泳行为、发育和存活的影响。实验室研究的结果正在与高分辨率的时空现实的流体动力学和碳酸盐化学预测结合在一个耦合的生物物理模型中，以预测幼虫扩散的变化及其对不同环境条件下种群连通性和持久性的影响。这项研究提供了新的见解幼虫的行为如何影响甲壳类集合种群的恢复力，通过量化分散模式和连接，潜在的人口碎片化，以及当前和未来气候情景下的整体招聘。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并已被认为是值得通过使用基金会的智力价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估的支持。

This award is funded in whole or in part under the American Rescue Plan Act of 2021 (Public Law 117-2).The stone crab fishery is a multimillion-dollar commercial industry in Florida, which may not be sustainable given forecasted climate change and the predicted increases in extreme weather events. Stone crab larval swimming behavior and survivorship are negatively affected by reduced pH (ocean acidification) and elevated temperatures. These conditions are expected to become more common and widespread along the western Florida coast and may impact the supply of larvae that settle into and replenish both unfished and fished populations. Changes in larval dispersal could lead to recruitment failure; however, the extent of such an outcome is currently unknown. The goal of this study is to develop models that forecast the abundance and distribution of Florida’s stone crabs under future climate scenarios. Laboratory experiments are quantifying how temperature and pH affect larval survivorship and behavior. Results from the laboratory studies are being integrated with information on ocean currents and chemistry into a biophysical model. This model predicts the effects of climate change on the stone crab population by combining projections of the physical and chemical environment with climate-induced changes to larval behavior. The broader impacts include relevance to sustainable management of the stone crab and other coastal crustacean fisheries, training opportunities for undergraduate and graduate students, and educational outreach. Curriculum development is occurring in partnership with Title-1 schools, and high-school students are developing short documentaries to be entered into a marine science film festival at Florida Southern College.In many coastal habitats, ocean acidification (OA) is occurring at an accelerated rate relative to end-of-century projections, largely due to localized wetland degradation, increased runoff, and eutrophication, all of which amplify variability in coastal pH. The ability to project future persistence of marine species and the sustainability of coastal fisheries depends on understanding how the combined effects of acidification and elevated temperature impact population connectivity and recruitment. Even small changes in planktonic larval survivorship, behaviors, or dispersal can lead to large population changes; however, predicting these changes requires understanding the biology of the organisms within the context of how the physical and chemical environment is changing. When exposed to reduced pH and elevated temperature conditions similar to those expected at the end of the century, some larvae not only experience increases in mortality, but they also change their swimming behavior, which in turn alters their dispersal in the coastal ocean. This study is quantifying the combined impacts of OA and elevated temperature on the dispersal and connectivity of a brachyuran crustacean, the stone crab. Controlled laboratory studies are measuring the effects of changes in pH and temperature on larval vertical swimming behavior, development, and survivorship. The results from the laboratory studies are being integrated with high-resolution spatially and temporally realistic hydrodynamic and carbonate chemistry projections in a coupled biophysical model to predict modifications to larval dispersal and their impact on population connectivity and persistence under different environmental conditions. This study is providing new insights into how larval behaviors affect the resilience of a crustacean metapopulation by quantifying dispersal patterns and connectivity, potential population fragmentation, and overall recruitment under current and future climate scenarios.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.