Assessing Urban Post-Earthquake Community Recovery to Inform Pre-Disaster Planning

在预测灾害对建筑环境造成的物理破坏方面已经投入了大量的努力，但对模拟灾难恢复以及减灾行动如何影响恢复的了解却少得多。此外，众所周知，在灾害风险和复原力方面存在着社会经济不平等。这个灾害恢复研究资助项目旨在开发模型，模拟灾后住房和商业运营的恢复。将获得关于社区的物理/人口/经济特征如何在恢复过程中相互作用的新见解。这些模型将用于量化一个地区目前从灾害中恢复的能力，并评估在灾害发生前可能采取的行动的效力。鉴于灾后破坏的巨大成本和用于缓解的大量资源，通过提高抗灾能力和有效分配有限的社会资源以促进公平，改善恢复的见解将大大造福社会。包括代表性不足的研究人员、与城市规划者合作以及公开发布建模软件的项目也将有助于这项工作产生更广泛的影响。该项目将开发用于灾难恢复模拟的新一代高分辨率计算模拟工具，以支持加强和更公平的住房恢复。建筑、自然和人类环境（包括家庭和公司行为）的高分辨率模拟将与机制相结合，以量化增强弹性政策的好处。住房的复苏将与基础设施和商业的复苏共同模拟，受到资源可用性的限制和社会经济因素的影响。将模拟个别家庭的恢复过程，为审查结果和评估不同群体增强复原力政策的效益提供极大的灵活性。这项工作将使人们能够全面了解地震后的社区恢复过程。这项研究将提高我们在灾难发生前评估备灾干预措施在多大程度上可以减少最初的灾难后果、加快恢复速度，并确保所有群体都能从中受益的能力。该项目的可交付成果将是一个用于评估地震后恢复和旧金山恢复案例研究分析的建模框架。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

Significant effort has been devoted to predicting physical damage to the built environment from disasters, but much less is understood about simulating disaster recovery, and how mitigation actions influence recovery. Further, it is well understood that there are existing socioeconomic inequalities in disaster risk and resilience. This Disaster Resilience Research Grants (DRRG) project aims to develop models to simulate housing and business operations recovery after a disaster. New insights will be gained into how a community's physical/demographic/economic characteristics interact in the recovery process. The models will be used to quantify a region's current ability to recover from disaster and evaluate the efficacy of actions that could be taken before disasters occur. Given the enormous costs of post-disaster disruption, and the significant resources committed for mitigation, insights on improving recovery will significantly benefit society, by improving disaster resilience and efficiently allocating limited societal resources to promote equity. Programs to involve underrepresented researchers, engage with city planners, and publicly release the modeling software will also contribute to the broader impacts of this work.This project will develop a new generation of high-resolution computational simulation tools for disaster recovery simulation, to support enhanced and more equitable housing recovery. High-resolution simulations of the built, natural, and human environment (including household and company behavior) will be combined with mechanisms to quantify the benefits of resilience-enhancing policies. The housing recovery will be jointly simulated with the recovery of infrastructure and businesses, constrained by the availability of resources and affected by socioeconomic factors. The recovery process of individual households will be simulated, providing great flexibility in examining results and assessing the benefits for different groups of resilience-enhancing policies. This work will enable a holistic understanding of the community recovery process after earthquakes. The research will advance our capabilities to assess, before a disaster, the extent to which disaster preparedness interventions can reduce initial disaster consequences, speed recovery, and ensure that all groups participate in the benefits. This project's deliverables will be a modeling framework for assessing post-earthquake recovery and case-study analysis of recovery in San Francisco.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.