Health effects of decarbonization (HEALED): Understanding key determinants for health co-benefits and co-harms

切实的人类健康共同利益可以激发对气候政策的更强有力的支持。例如，通过减少共同排放的空气污染物，能源系统的脱碳可以产生相当大的健康协同效益。然而，从健康角度评估近期脱碳战略面临两个关键的分析挑战：(I)一些碳缓解战略带来的意外健康共同危害；例如，大规模生物能源生产可能推高食品价格，从而导致与营养相关的健康共同危害，以及(Ii)未来的深层次不确定性，如社会经济模式、技术成本和市场因素。这个项目的目标是：(I)提高对决定脱碳健康结果的大小和分布的关键因素和过程的量化了解，以及(Ii)确定在未来的深层次不确定性下，最有可能产生强劲健康净效益的脱碳战略的特征。研究人员假设，虽然健康共同利益和共同损害既受当地技术选择(如发电技术和车辆类型)和社会经济因素(如收入增长和人口老龄化)的影响，但健康共同损害进一步取决于跨地区和部门的复杂互动，如区域间电力贸易，生物燃料和食物。以美国为重点，研究人员将通过：(I)开发一个综合的能源-食品-健康建模框架，通过改进州一级综合评估模型(GCAM-USA)中健康驱动因素的表示，并将其与精细分辨率的健康影响评估模块相连接，来检验这一假设；(Ii)构建一个大规模的脱碳情景集合，以代表社会经济模式、能源技术成本和食品/能源市场设置中的各种未来不确定性；以及(Iii)确定决定县、州和国家层面健康结果的关键因素和过程。通过结合能源系统建模、健康影响评估和决策分析的知识，这项融合的研究旨在提高对低碳能源战略与人类健康之间的非线性相互作用，以及这些相互作用所依赖的市场和自然系统的作用的理解。因此，该项目寻求推进对管理能源、健康和气候方面相互关联的社会挑战的复杂系统的量化理解。通过不同学科的融合，它寻求对决定脱碳健康结果的关键相互作用动态提供新的见解。此外，通过利用现代计算能力来分析大型场景集合，数据驱动的方法旨在量化各种社会经济、技术和市场不确定性在确定健康共同利益或共同损害方面的相对重要性。该项目将为研究和教育目的制作开放源码的模型代码和教材。它还将在高度跨学科的环境中培养本科生和博士生。调查结果旨在指导从业者改进决策，更好地驾驭气候健康关系。这一奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

Tangible human health co-benefits can motivate stronger support for climate policy. For example, decarbonizing the energy system can produce sizable health co-benefits by reducing co-emitted air pollutants. However, assessing near-term decarbonization strategies with health considerations faces two key analytical challenges: (i) unintended health co-harms from some carbon mitigation strategies; for instance, large-scale bioenergy production can drive up food prices, which leads to nutrition-related health co-harms, and (ii) deep uncertainties about the future, such as socioeconomic patterns, technology costs, and market factors. The objectives of this project are: (i) to improve the quantitative understanding of key factors and processes that determine the magnitude and distribution of health outcomes from decarbonization, and (ii) to identify features of decarbonization strategies that are most likely to yield robust net health benefits given deep future uncertainties.The investigators hypothesize that while health co-benefits and co-harms are both affected by local technology choices (e.g., electricity generation technologies and vehicle types) and socioeconomic factors (e.g., income growth and population aging), the health co-harms are further determined by complex interactions across regions and sectors, such as inter-regional trade of electricity, biofuel, and food. With a focus on the United States, the investigators will test the hypothesis by: (i) developing an integrated energy-food-health modeling framework, by improving the representation of health drivers in a state-level integrated assessment model (GCAM-USA) and connecting it with a fine- resolution health impact assessment module, (ii) constructing a large-scale ensemble of decarbonization scenarios to represent a wide range of future uncertainties in socioeconomic patterns, energy technology costs, and food/energy market setups, and (iii) identifying the key factors and processes that determine health outcomes at the county, state, and national levels. By combining knowledge from energy system modeling, health impact assessment, and decision analysis, this convergent research targets improving understanding of the non-linear interactions between low-carbon energy strategies and human health, as well as the role of the market and natural systems on which these interactions depend. Thus, this project seeks to advance quantitative understanding of the complex systems governing interconnected societal challenges on energy, health, and climate. Through a convergence of various disciplines, it seeks to provide new insights on key interacting dynamics that determine health outcomes from decarbonization. Further, by leveraging modern computational capabilities to analyze a large scenario ensemble, a data-driven approach is intended to enable quantification of the relative importance of various socioeconomic, technological, and market uncertainties in determining the health co-benefits or co-harms. The project will produce open-source model code and teaching materials for research and educational purposes. It will also train undergraduate and doctoral students in a highly interdisciplinary environment. Findings are intended to guide practitioners to improve their decisions to better navigate the climate-health nexus.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.