LTREB Renewal: Evolutionary and Demographic Responses to Climate in Natural Populations

本研究的目的是了解快速变化的环境如何影响自然选择和种群规模。许多植物和动物物种可能受到快速环境变化的威胁，例如干旱频率或严重程度的增加。这项研究将通过适应新环境条件的过程，测试一个种群避免因气候变化而崩溃所需的条件。它将增加运行时间最长的关于植物选择如何响应年积雪和传粉者可用性变化的数据集，并首次建立适应这些条件如何使种群恢复的模型。它将确定选择压力如何随着水的可用性而变化，叶片和花朵性状的遗传变异如何与气候变化相互作用以影响出生率和死亡率，以及授粉的变化如何与物理环境相互作用以影响进化变化。人口规模对气候变化的反应将在下个世纪进行预测，并提供其他物种如何反应的案例研究。该项目将包括培养多样化的本科生、研究生和博士后。在落基山生物实验室（RMBL）的实地科学考察将被带领向公众推广。此外，一个公民科学项目将允许公众为绘制美国西部传粉媒介丰富度的地图做出贡献。本项目将继续在元湖附近进行长期的野外研究，以测量聚波麻亚种的自然选择、营养性状和花性状的遗传变异程度。蓼科蓼属植物。到资助期结束时，将有16到23年的选择数据（取决于性状）来检查选择和融雪日期之间的关系。结合融雪日期如何改变绝对适应度的独特数据，进化救援模型将在自然界中得到充分的参数化。该项目将研究进化和人口统计学反应对性状遗传变异的依赖性，从采用全同胞育种设计的普通花园中测量。适应表型可塑性对年融雪日期和夏季降水的响应程度也将纳入种群规模的预测。虽然先前的植物适应气候的研究强调了营养性状，但花性状（形状、颜色、回报、挥发物）也将被建模，因为它们的选择取决于水的可用性和传粉者的丰度。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

The purpose of this study is to understand how a rapidly changing environment influences natural selection and population size. Many species of plants and animals can be threatened by rapid environmental change, such as an increase in frequency or severity of drought. This research will test the conditions required for a population to avoid collapse due to climate change, through a process of adapting to the new environmental conditions. It will add to the longest-running data set on how selection in plants responds to changes in annual snowpack and pollinator availability, and to model for the first time how adaptation to these conditions allows populations to recover. It will determine how selective pressures change in response to water availability, how genetic variation in leaf and flower traits interact with climate change to affect birth and death rates, and how changes in pollination interacts with the physical environment to influence evolutionary change. Responses of population size to climate change will be projected over the next century and provide a case study of how other species might respond. The project will include the training of diverse undergraduate and graduate students and postdoctoral associates. Field science tours at the Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory (RMBL) will be led for outreach to the general public. In addition, a citizen science project will allow the public to contribute to the building of maps of pollinator abundance across the western US. This project will continue a long-term field study near the RMBL to measure natural selection on, and the extent of genetic variance in, vegetative and floral traits of Ipomopsis aggregata subspp. aggregata and Ipomopsis tenuituba (Polemoniaceae). By the end of the grant period there will be 16 to 23 years of data on selection (depending on the trait) to examine associations between selection and snowmelt date. In combination with unique data on how absolute fitness is altered by snowmelt date, models for evolutionary rescue will be fully parameterized in nature. The project will examine the dependence of evolutionary and demographic responses on genetic variance in traits, as measured from common gardens with a full-sib breeding design. The extent of adaptive phenotypic plasticity in response to annual snowmelt date and summer precipitation will also be incorporated into projections of population size. Although prior studies of plant adaptation to climate have emphasized vegetative traits, floral traits (shape, color, rewards, volatiles) will be modeled as well, as selection on them depends on water availability and pollinator abundance.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.