NSF Convergence Accelerator Track E: Regional Climate Change Projections to Enable Equitable Ocean Planning for the Blue Economy

国家科学基金趋同加速器E轨道：区域气候变化预测，为蓝色经济实现公平的海洋规划。沿海海洋可以通过可持续的海产品、清洁能源生产、精神复兴、令人满意的职业和丰富的自然资源显著提高人类福祉。为了做出关于利用沿海海洋的重要决定，人类在很大程度上依赖于过去的经验。然而，对于气候变化，过去的经验不再是未来的充分参考。从事海洋活动的个人和组织迫切需要预测未来的变化，并对不确定的未来做出强有力的决定。该项目的总体目标是：1)通过预测气候对风能、渔业和保护的影响来指导近海海洋经济的发展；2)协同设计网络工具，使不同的社区成员能够将气候信息纳入其决策；3)开发方法，使边缘化社区参与有关区域海洋经济发展的决策。渔业基础设施、港口开发、海上风能选址、海洋规划和保护规划方面的商业投资都是气候预测可以提供信息的重要决策示例。该项目旨在在整个蓝色经济中实现气候就绪、协调和包容的决策，并激发新一代可持续的蓝色发展。利用未来气候信息为决策提供信息需要对受众的深刻理解和参与，包括努力匹配人们需要信息的时间和空间尺度，为受益于气候知识的决策提供信息，并对决策所处的政策生态系统做出反应。气候数据的产生和使用之间一直存在着差距，主要是因为太多的气候科学是有用的，但不容易使用。本提案旨在通过与区域蓝色经济中不同行为体的知识联合生产来弥合这一可用性差距，以便将有用的气候影响数据转化为可信和可获取的知识，为更公平的蓝色经济决策提供信息。通过将气候模型与生态和经济模型相结合，该项目将对气候对渔业、海上风能资源和与决策规模相匹配的保护机会的影响进行时间和空间缩小的预测。为了使这些预测可用，该项目将合作设计一个决策支持工具的原型，使不同的社区成员能够将气候信息纳入其决策，并制定参与性流程，使边缘化社区参与区域海洋规划。该项目的更广泛影响包括通过更有效和持久的海洋决策改善福祉，扩大边缘化群体对海洋规划的参与，以及扩大代表性不足群体成员对科学的参与。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

CBET-2137701NSF Convergence Accelerator Track E: Regional climate change projections to enable equitable ocean planning for the blue economy.The coastal ocean can dramatically enhance human well-being through sustainable seafood, clean energy production, spiritual rejuvenation, satisfying careers, and abundant natural resources. To make important decisions about use of the coastal ocean, humans largely rely on past experience. With climate change, however, past experience is no longer an adequate reference for the future. There is an urgent need for individuals and organizations engaged in ocean activities to anticipate future changes and make decisions that are robust to an uncertain future. The project's overarching objectives are to: 1) Guide the development of the offshore ocean economy with projections of climate impacts on wind energy, fisheries, and conservation, 2) Collaboratively design web tools that empower diverse community members to integrate climate information into their decision-making, and 3) Develop methods for engaging marginalized communities in decisions about the development of the regional ocean economy. Business investment in fisheries infrastructure, port development, offshore wind energy siting, ocean planning, and conservation planning are all examples of important decisions that climate projections can inform. This project aims to enable climate-ready, coordinated, and inclusive decision making throughout the blue economy and spark a new generation of durable blue development. Informing decisions with future climate information requires a keen understanding of and engagement with the audience, including efforts to match the temporal and spatial scales at which people need information, inform decisions that benefit from climate knowledge, and respond to the policy ecosystem in which decisions are made. There has been a persistent gap between climate data production and its use, largely because too much climate science is useful but not readily usable. This proposal is designed to bridge this usability gap through knowledge co-production with diverse actors in the regional blue economy in order to translate useful climate impact data into credible and accessible knowledge that informs more equitable blue economy decisions. By integrating climate models with ecological and economic models, this project will develop temporally and spatially downscaled projections of climate impacts on fisheries, offshore wind resources, and conservation opportunities that match the scales of decision-making. To make these projections usable, the project will collaboratively design a prototype decision support tool that empowers diverse community members to integrate climate information into their decision-making and develop participatory processes for engaging marginalized communities in regional ocean planning. The broader impacts of the project include improved well-being through more effective and durable ocean decisions, broadened participation of marginalized groups in ocean planning, and broadened participation of members of underrepresented groups in science.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.