PIPP Phase 1: International Center for Avian Influenza Pandemic Prediction and Prevention

禽流感，通常被称为禽流感，过去几十年来在亚洲、非洲、欧洲和北美多次爆发，造成数十亿家禽、数千只野生水禽和数百人死亡。由于1918年流感大流行揭示了源自禽类的流感病毒可能导致数百万人死亡，因此预测和预防下一次流感大流行是全球卫生领域的重大挑战之一。尽管在过去二十年中对禽流感病毒（AIV）的研究进行了大量投资和研究，但预测禽流感大流行的能力仍然严重不足。由于人类-动物-环境系统（HAES）中的AIV风险因素在过去几十年中发生了迅速变化，并且预计在未来几十年世界范围内将以更快的速度变化，因此迫切需要加强预测能力。这项预防禽流感大流行的预测情报（PIPP）第一阶段：发展拨款组建了一个多机构团队，探索建立国际禽流感大流行预测和预防中心（ICAIP3）的适当途径。该中心的使命是应对全球卫生领域的重大挑战，重点是禽流感大流行的预测和预防。该项目的更广泛影响包括加强研究人员、利益相关者和决策者之间的国际伙伴关系；为国际和融合的研究和多样化的职业道路发展STEM劳动力；提高公众科学素养和公众参与；提高禽流感大流行预测和预防能力。在科学上，本项目侧重于流行病预测和预防的四个主要问题。首先，本项目通过OneHealth（人-动物-环境健康）方法和大数据方法研究复杂和动态的数据问题。研究人员审查和评估了各种AIV和HAES数据集，并确定了将不同数据集转化为可供建模和分析的分析数据集的途径和程序。其次，通过集成建模方法解决了多尺度和交织模型问题。研究人员回顾和评估了各种AIV模型和人工智能（AI）和机器学习（ML）算法，然后确定合适的AIV模型和AI/ML算法，以开发新的集成模型，以预测AIV的进化、溢出和传播。第三，采用结构决策方法对决策支持系统问题进行评估。研究人员审查和评估各种AIV决策支持系统和工具（DSST），然后确定适当的AIV DSST，以便进一步开发和实际应用于AIV监测、大流行防范和应对。最后，本项目确定开发网络基础设施的适当途径，用于人畜共患传染病社区之间的数据密集型研究、交流和共享。该中心将侧重于预测和预防欧亚大陆的艾滋病大流行及其与北美的潜在联系和风险。该奖项由流行病预防的跨部门预测情报第一阶段（PIPP）计划提供支持，该计划由生物科学（BIO）、计算机信息科学与工程（CISE）、工程（ENG）和社会、行为和经济科学（SBE）委员会共同资助。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

Avian influenza, often referred to as bird flu, has had many outbreaks in Asia, Africa, Europe, and North America in the past decades, resulting in losses of billions of poultry, thousands of wild waterfowl, and hundreds of humans. As the 1918 Influenza Pandemic revealed the potential of influenza viruses that originate in birds to kill millions of humans, prediction and prevention of the next influenza pandemic is one of the grand challenges in global health. Although significant investment and research have been made in avian influenza virus (AIV) research over the past two decades, the capacity to predict AIV pandemic is still woefully inadequate. There is an urgent and imperative need to fortify the prediction capacity, as AIV risk factors in the human-animal-environment systems (HAES) have changed rapidly in the past few decades and are expected to change at a much faster pace across the world in the next few decades. This Predictive Intelligence for Pandemic Prevention (PIPP) Phase I: Development Grant assembles a multi-institutional team to explore the appropriate pathways for establishing an International Center for Avian Influenza Pandemic Prediction and Prevention (ICAIP3). The mission of the center is to tackle the grand challenges in global health with a focus on avian-influenza pandemic prediction and prevention. The broader impacts of this project include increased international partnerships between researchers, stakeholders, and decision makers; development of STEM workforce for international and convergent research and diverse career paths; increased public scientific literacy and public engagement; and increased capacity for avian influenza pandemic prediction and prevention. Scientifically, this project focuses on four major problems in pandemic prediction and prevention. First, this project investigates the complex and dynamic data problem via the OneHealth (Human-Animal-Environmental Health) approach and the Big Data approach. Researchers review and assess diverse AIV and HAES datasets and identify the pathways and procedures for harnessing the disparate datasets into analysis-ready datasets for modeling and analysis. Second, this project tackles the multi-scale and interwoven model problem via the integrated modeling approach. Researchers review and assess various AIV models and artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) algorithms, and then identify appropriate AIV models and AI/ML algorithms for developing new integrated models to predict AIV evolution, spillover, and transmission. Third, this project assesses the decision support system problem via the structure decision making approach. Researchers review and assess various AIV decision support systems and tools (DSST), and then identify appropriate AIV DSST for further development and practical use in the AIV surveillance, pandemic preparedness, and response. Finally, this project identifies appropriate pathways to develop cyberinfrastructure for data-intensive research, communication, and sharing among the community of zoonotic infectious diseases. The center will be focused on prediction and prevention of AIV pandemic in Eurasia and its potential linkage and risk with North America.This award is supported by the cross-directorate Predictive Intelligence for Pandemic Prevention Phase I (PIPP) program, which is jointly funded by the Directorates for Biological Sciences (BIO), Computer Information Science and Engineering (CISE), Engineering (ENG) and Social, Behavioral and Economic Sciences (SBE).This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.