OCE-PRF: Investigating coral demographic processes to understand how local conditions interact with climate change to influence coral recovery trajectories

珊瑚礁是最危险的生态系统之一，受到全球气候变化和过度捕捞和污染等当地压力因素的威胁。全球气候变化威胁着珊瑚礁，因为暖水事件（称为“海洋热浪”）引发珊瑚漂白和大规模死亡。珊瑚礁的当地条件，如污染或与珊瑚竞争的藻类过度生长，可能加剧漂白事件后珊瑚的死亡率。然而，我们并不了解珊瑚礁的这些当地条件是否也会影响珊瑚在漂白事件后的长期恢复。这项研究解决了这一知识差距，并提供了结果，为有效的管理行动提供信息，以减少当地压力源在气候变化面前对珊瑚礁的影响。与全球气候变化不同，珊瑚礁的地方压力可以由个别社区和国家管理。这项工作的大部分重点是夏威夷的珊瑚礁，并为夏威夷的社区提供直接的社会效益。此外，该项目支持早期职业研究人员，并为STEM中代表性不足的群体的学生提供定量工具和计算机编程技能的研究机会和培训。这些是跨科学学科和STEM职业创新研究的基本技能。漂白事件发生后，当地条件影响珊瑚恢复的程度是有争议的，部分原因是我们对珊瑚的人口过程如何推动恢复或缺乏恢复的了解不多。这项工作使用了几个现有的数据集和多层建模方法来研究珊瑚的人口统计过程，以了解当地条件如何与气候变化相互作用，从而影响珊瑚的恢复轨迹。这项工作使用了太平洋四个区域的珊瑚大小-频率数据的时间序列，以评估区域漂白事件后的珊瑚人口统计率（群体增长和补充），并评价这些人口统计过程在推动恢复动态方面的相对重要性。夏威夷珊瑚礁的数据被用来建立一系列结构方程模型，以评估当地的压力（捕捞压力和营养污染）对珊瑚人口率的影响及其与珊瑚礁恢复轨迹的关系。此外，首席研究员计划使用这些模型作为基础，以预测如何减少当地的压力可能会或可能不会提高珊瑚恢复率在夏威夷。这一奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并已被认为是值得通过使用基金会的智力价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估的支持。

Coral reefs are among the most imperiled ecosystems, threatened by global climate change and local stressors such as overfishing and pollution. Global climate change threatens coral reefs because warm water events (known as ‘marine heatwaves’) trigger coral bleaching and mass mortality. Local conditions on coral reefs, such as pollution or algal overgrowth that compete with corals, can intensify coral mortality following bleaching events. However, we do not understand whether these local conditions on coral reefs also influence long-term coral recovery after bleaching events. This research addresses this knowledge gap and provides results to inform efficient management actions to lessen the impacts of local stressors on reefs in the face of climate change. Unlike global climate change, local stressors to coral reefs can be managed by individual communities and countries. Much of this work focuses on reefs in Hawaii and provides direct societal benefits to communities in Hawaii. In addition, this project supports an early-career researcher and provides research opportunities and training in quantitative tools and computer programming skills for students from underrepresented groups in STEM. These are fundamental skills for innovative research across scientific disciplines and STEM careers. The degree to which local conditions influence coral recovery after bleaching events is debated, partly because we have a poor understanding of how demographic processes in corals drive recovery or lack thereof. This work uses several existing datasets and a multi-tiered modeling approach to study coral demographic processes to understand how local conditions interact with climate change to influence coral recovery trajectories. This work uses a time series of coral size-frequency data across four regions in the Pacific to assess coral demographic rates (colony growth and recruitment) following regional bleaching events and evaluate the relative importance of those demographic processes in driving recovery dynamics. Data from Hawaiian reefs are used to build a series of structural equation models to evaluate the impact of local stressors (fishing pressure and nutrient pollution) on coral demographic rates and their relationship to reef recovery trajectories. Additionally, the principal investigator plans to use those models as a foundation to forecast how reducing local stressors may or may not enhance coral recovery rates in Hawaii.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.