Integrated assessment of climate change, climate input errors and land-use change on soil-moisture and carbon-balance in a catchment simulation framework

评估气候变暖条件下土壤水分和碳平衡的变化对土地利用和农业规划具有重要意义。建议使用决策支持工具来执行评估，并允许我们制定减少不利影响的计划。该工具由三部分组成。第一部分模拟降雨精度的变化，以校准集水区模拟的方法。第二部分使用随机降尺度模拟气候变化条件下的降雨。第三部分利用缩小尺度的气候输入模拟未来土壤水分和碳平衡。最终的结果是未来气候条件下流域水文的概率模拟。

Assessing soil moisture and carbon balance changes in a warmer climate is important for land-use and agricultural planning. A decision support tool is proposed that performs the assessment and allows us to develop plans that reduce adverse impacts. The tool consists of three parts. The first part models changes in rainfall accuracy to calibrate approaches for catchment simulation. The second part simulates rainfall under climate change conditions using stochastic downscaling. The third part simulates future soil moisture and carbon balance using downscaled climate inputs. The end result is a probabilistic simulation of the catchment hydrology under future climates.