RAPID: Amplifying threats during cascading crises: Media's role in shaping psychological responses to the war in Ukraine

2022年2月24日，俄罗斯以敌对势力入侵乌克兰，引发了二战以来欧洲最激烈的军事冲突，并在战争的第一个月造成数千人伤亡和400多万乌克兰难民。关于这场国际地缘政治危机的报道瞬间让传统和社交媒体充斥着受伤、死亡和破坏的图形视频和图像--众所周知，媒体报道与糟糕的身心健康状况相关。但乌克兰战争发生在更广泛的背景下，即新冠肺炎大流行，全球死亡人数超过600万，与气候相关的危机不断升级，经济波动和通胀，种族驱动的社会动荡，极端的党派偏见，以及对负责保护公众的科学和社会机构的信心不足。对这些史无前例的连锁集体创伤的直接和基于媒体的暴露，可能会对美国人的心理和身体健康产生深远影响。有效地管理这些复杂的危机需要人们支持的政策和公众采用推荐的行为。该项目评估了来自NORC ameriSak小组的6500多名美国人的大概率全国代表性样本对乌克兰战争的心理反应。自2020年3月以来，他们已经接受了三次调查。随着媒体从对新冠肺炎的大量报道转向对冲突的大量报道，收集了有关乌克兰战争的早期反应和信念。分析考察了对不确定性、情绪调节、对政府的信任和社会身份的不容忍如何解释媒体曝光与对战争的情感、认知和行为反应之间的联系。这项研究调查了对这些多重持续威胁的恐惧和担忧如何加剧了负面的心理健康结果，并影响了那些对这种乘数效应最有害的人。最后，该项目调查了与战争有关的媒体曝光如何激励人们采取积极行动(例如，亲社会行为)来帮助难民和捍卫乌克兰的民主。将该项目纳入对新冠肺炎疫情的更大范围的研究，可以考察各国在复杂的全球危机演变过程中的应对措施，从而产生具有重要实践意义的丰富理论研究。当政策制定者公开交流多重生存威胁及其潜在解决方案时，结果会告知他们，这样他们就可以更好地促进公众福祉，而不会导致进一步的担忧、痛苦或情绪衰竭。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

On February 24, 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine with hostile force, starting the most intense military conflict in Europe since World War II and leading to thousands of injuries and deaths and over 4 million Ukrainian refugees in the first month of the war. Reports of this international geopolitical crisis have instantaneously flooded traditional and social media outlets with graphic videos and images of injuries, death, and destruction – media coverage known to correlate with poor physical and mental health outcomes. But the Ukraine War is occurring in the broader context of the COVID-19 pandemic whose worldwide death toll exceeds 6 million people, escalating climate-related crises, economic volatility and inflation, race-driven social unrest, extreme partisanship, and low confidence in the scientific and social institutions tasked with protecting the public. Direct and media-based exposure to these unprecedented cascading collective traumas are likely to have profound effects on the mental and physical health of Americans. Effective management of these compounding crises requires policies that people support and public adoption of recommended behaviors. This project assesses psychological reactions to the Ukraine War among a large probability-based nationally representative sample of over 6,500 Americans from the NORC AmeriSpeak panel. They have been surveyed three times since March 2020. Early responses and beliefs about the war in Ukraine are collected as the media transitions from heavy coverage of COVID-19 to heavy coverage of the conflict. Analyses examine how intolerance for uncertainty, emotion regulation, trust in government, and social identities may explain the association between media exposure and emotional, cognitive, and behavioral responses to the war. This study investigates how fears and worries about these multiple ongoing threats are compounding negative mental health outcomes and impacting those for whom this multiplicative effect is most detrimental. Finally, this project investigates how war-related media exposure may motivate people to take positive action (e.g., prosocial behavior) to help refugees and defend Ukraine’s democracy. Embedding this project in the larger study of the COVID-19 pandemic allows examination of national responses to compounding global crises as they evolve, producing theoretically rich research with practical importance. Results inform policy makers when communicating publicly about multiple existential threats and their potential solutions so they can better promote public well-being without inducing further worry, distress, or emotional exhaustion.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.