AOC: Societal Implications of Individual Differences in Response to Turbulence: The Case of Terrorism

应对动荡的个体差异的社会影响：恐怖事件Roxane Cohen Silver，博士，加州大学欧文分校首席研究员Richard Matthew，博士，加州大学欧文分校联席首席研究员George Shambaugh，博士，乔治城大学联席首席研究员摘要20世纪最后几十年，技术创新、经济全球化、环境变化和政治变革的速度和规模急剧上升。这些进程的影响是多种多样和复杂的。在许多方面--从识字到预期寿命--人类取得了显著的、有据可查的进展。但是，我们这个相互关联和迅速变化的世界也面临着越来越多的跨国威胁，如气候变化、传染病和全球恐怖主义。政治学家正在努力了解这些全球威胁是如何影响民主价值观、制度和做法的。社会心理学家正在研究创伤事件在一个社会中引发的个人反应的范围。重要的是将这两种研究结合起来，以调查创伤性事件和对全球威胁的看法可能在多大程度上引起不同的政治反应，这些反应总体上可以影响民主价值观、机构和做法。我们将通过研究一个人的年龄和年龄群体如何影响他或她对恐怖主义和其他安全威胁的反应，以及对未来威胁的感知可能性，将这两个领域结合在一起。由于美国是在全球安全格局剧烈动荡的时候老龄化的，重要的是要考虑这种现象如何影响我们国家对使用武力、征兵和许多其他与安全有关的问题的支持。它还提出了一些重要的一般性问题，如对政府的信任、议程设置和老龄化民主国家的政策制定。我们将与一家基于网络的调查研究公司合作，分三次从一个由1500名成年人组成的具有全国代表性的纵向小组收集数据。这项研究的具体目的是探索以下之间的关系：(A)老龄化和年龄队列；(B)对与安全有关的形式的全球动荡和变革的个人解释和反应；(C)社会和政治结果，如支持或抗议在国外使用武力的变化，对国内监视的态度，以及对政府的信任程度。我们将把跨国恐怖主义的威胁作为全球动荡和变革的主要例子，但我们相信，我们的研究产生的结果与传染病、恶劣天气事件和跨国犯罪等问题同样相关。

Societal Implications of Individual Differences in Response to Turbulence: The Case of TerrorismRoxane Cohen Silver, PhD, Principal Investigator, University of California, IrvineRichard Matthew, PhD, Co-Principal Investigator, University of California, IrvineGeorge Shambaugh, PhD, Co-Principal Investigator, Georgetown UniversityAbstractThe final decades of the twentieth century witnessed a dramatic upsurge in the pace and scale of technological innovation, economic globalization, environmental change and political transformation. The impacts of these processes are varied and complex. On many fronts--from literacy to life expectancy--humankind has experienced remarkable and well-documented gains. But our interconnected and rapidly changing world is also being challenged by an expanding list of transnational threats such as climate change, infectious disease and global terrorism. Political scientists are working to understand how these global threats are affecting democratic values, institutions, and practices. Social psychologists are studying the range of responses traumatic events elicit among individuals within a society. It is important to weave these two strands of research together to investigate the extent to which traumatic events and perceptions of global threats may evoke different political responses that in aggregate can influence democratic values, institutions and practices. We will bring our two fields together by studying how an individual's age and age cohort influences his or her responses to terrorism and other security threats and the perceived likelihood of future threats. Because the United States is aging at a time of great turbulence in the global security landscape, it is important to consider how this phenomenon influences our country's support for the use of force, conscription, and many other security-related issues. It also raises important general questions about issues such as trust in government, agenda setting and policy formulation in an aging democracy.In collaboration with a Web-based survey research company, we will collect data from a nationally representative longitudinal panel of 1500 adults at three waves.. The specific aims of this research are to explore the relationships among (a) aging and age cohorts; (b) individual interpretations of and responses to security-relevant forms of global turbulence and transformation; and (c) social and political outcomes such as changes in support for or protest against the use of force abroad, attitudes towards surveillance at home, and one's level of trust in government. We will use the threat of transnational terrorism as the primary example of global turbulence and transformation, but we believe the findings generated by our research are equally relevant to issues such as infectious disease, severe weather events, and transnational crime.