A cross-taxa assessment of the impact of climate change on population abundance

预测气候变化对物种的影响是生态学家面临的最重要的当代问题之一。由于气温几十年来一直在上升，我们可以利用已经在群落中观察到的变化来确定哪些物种最有可能处于危险之中。气候变化有三个主要的公认特征：物候的进步、极地范围的转移和相对丰度向温暖适应物种的群落转移。前两个指纹得到了相当大的关注，而第三个指纹得到的关注要少得多。尽管如此，物种数量的变化将对当地乃至全球的物种灭绝风险产生直接影响。在这个项目中，我们将与多位科学家合作，汇集中欧不同物种的长期种群数据集，以评估和比较气候变化对种群丰度的影响。我们的项目将包括陆地、海洋和淡水系统和物种的数据，如跳虫和地面甲虫，这些物种对气候变化的影响知之甚少。我们首先通过测试种群趋势和物种温度生态位之间的关系，以及预测适应温暖的物种比适应寒冷的物种更成功，来询问是否可以检测到气候变化信号。温度生态位对种群趋势的重要性将与其他可能表明其他环境驱动因素(如土地利用变化)影响的属性(如栖息地偏好)的重要性进行比较。人们越来越认识到，物种的属性(其生态、形态、生理和生活史)将改变对气候变化的反应。我们将测试哪些物种属性改变了温度生态位与种群趋势之间的关系的强度，这将使我们能够推断哪些类型的物种对气候变化的反应更快或更慢。最后，我们将测试不同分类群的群落温度指数(CTI；群落平均温度生态位)的效用。气候变化倡议是气候变化影响的潜在有价值的指标，特别是作为公众和政策制定者的沟通工具。然而，温度生态位和其他物种属性之间的协变性阻碍了它的应用。我们的目标是开发一个校正的CTI，考虑到这种协变性，以重新评估其价值。这个项目有助于我们了解社区如何受到气候变化的影响，有助于确定面临最大风险的分类群体和生态系统，并指导保护优先事项。

Predicting the impacts of climate change on species is one of the most important contemporary questions for ecologists. As temperatures have already been increasing for several decades, we can make use of the changes already observed in communities to identify which species are most likely at risk. There are three main recognized fingerprints of climate change: advances in phenology, pole-ward range shifts and community shifts of relative abundance toward warm-adapted species. The first two of these fingerprints have received considerable attention while the third has received much less. Nonetheless, changes in abundance will have direct impacts on local, and probably also global, extinction risk. In this project, we will collaborate with multiple scientists, bringing together long-term population data sets of different species within Central Europe, to assess and compare the impacts of climate change on population abundances. Our project will include data from terrestrial, marine and freshwater systems and species, such as springtails and ground beetles, for which climate change impacts are less understood. We first ask whether climate change signals are detectable by testing the relationship between population trend and species temperature niche and the prediction that warm-adapted species have been more successful than cool-adapted species. The importance of temperature niche for population trends will be compared with the importance of other attributes (such as habitat preference) that might indicate the effect of other environmental drivers (such as land use change). It is increasingly being recognized that species attributes (their ecology, morphology, physiology and life history) will modify responses to climate change. We will test what species attributes modify the strength of the relationship between temperature niche and population trend, which will allow us to infer which types of species are responding faster or slower to climate change. Finally, we will test the utility of the community temperature index (CTI; community averaged temperature niche) for different taxonomic groups. The CTI is a potentially valuable indicator of climate change impacts, especially as a communication tool for the general public and policy makers. However, covariation between temperature niche and other species attributes hinders its application. We aim to develop a corrected CTI that considers this covariation for reassessment of its value. This project contributes to our understanding of how communities are impacted by climate change, for identifying the taxonomic groups and ecosystems most at risk and for directing conservation priorities.