Spatial Patterns in Traffic Accident Risks: Residential Location Based Analyses

交通事故的空间分类通常是根据事故地点进行的。然而，这种方法只留下了有限的空间来得出基于人口的风险的结论，因为事故地点不一定与受害者的居住地相匹配。该项目采用以居住地为基础的方法，对以人口为基础的事故风险进行地理分析。还进行了基于居住地和事故地点的综合分析，分析依据是下萨克森州内政部提供的2006-2013年期间的事故伤亡统计数字。这些数字包括按意外严重程度、年龄、性别和交通工具分类的伤亡数字。这些数据包括伤亡人员居住地和事故地点的邮政编码。这些数据将与社会人口、经济、暴露、与交通相关的属性和城市形态属性相匹配。这样，这些背景属性与基于人口的事故风险之间的关联可以比目前更详细地研究。这将在市政一级针对整个下萨克森州进行，在社区微观空间层面针对汉诺威地区进行。在方法方面，将使用描述性统计和地图以及回归分析和多元方程模型(结构方程模型)。将根据年龄和性别、居民区(汉诺威地区)的社会地位和交通方式对人口群体进行详细分析。风险趋势的空间差异也将被研究。

The spatial categorisation of traffic accidents is typically made on the basis of places of accident. This approach, however, leaves only limited room for conclusions about population-based risks, because the place of accident does not necessarily match a victim's place of residence. This project employs a residence-based approach to geographically analyse population-based accident risks. Combined place-of-residence and place-of-accident-based analyses are undertaken as well.The analyses are based on accident casualty counts provided by the Lower Saxony Ministry of the Interior covering the period 2006-2013. They include the number of casualties, categorised by severity of accident, age, sex and transport mode. The data include postal codes of the casualties' place of residence and place of accident. These data will be matched with sociodemographic, economic, exposure, transport-related and urban form attributes.Doing so, associations between these context attributes and population-based accident risks can be studied in considerably more detail than to date. This will be done for Lower Saxony as a whole on the municipality level, and for the Region of Hannover on the micro-spatial level of neighbourhoods. In terms of methodology, descriptive statistics and maps will be used as well as regression analysis and multiple equation models (structural equation models). Detailed analyses will be undertaken for population groups based on age and sex, social status of the residential neighbourhood (for the Region of Hannover) and transport mode. Spatial differences in risk trends will be studied as well.