Electricity Pricing and Subsidy for Energy Conservation in Developing Country: Evidence from Natural Experiment

本研究使用不丹的月度用电量数据来检验家庭对非线性电价的反应。2013年10月，不丹政府向农村家庭免费提供100千瓦时的电力补贴（而城市家庭不符合补贴资格）。结果表明，在补贴前，农村和城市家庭都不使用100千瓦时。补贴后，农户按100千瓦时（即补贴门槛）捆绑。农村家庭用电量超过100千瓦时，对超过100千瓦时的用电量实行标准边际电价。对农村家庭的聚类结果表明，补贴后刚好低于100千瓦时的观测数量大约是反事实（即没有补贴的家庭数量）的两倍，而我们在城市家庭中没有发现这种反应。同样，根据文献，我们在第一阶段回归中使用预测的边际价格和平均价格作为工具来检验家庭是否对边际价格或平均价格做出反应。结果表明，家庭对边际价格而不是平均价格作出反应。由于我们没有观察到在城市家庭边际价格增加的100千瓦时消费阈值处类似的聚集，因此IV结果很可能捕捉到农村家庭的需求响应。在此基础上，我们建立了电力需求模型，利用模拟矩法估计模型参数，目前正在对结果进行确认。

This research examines the households response to nonlinear electricity price using monthly electricity consumption data from Bhutan. In October 2013, government of Bhutan introduced free 100 kWh of electricity subsidy to rural households (while urban households are not eligible for the subsidy). Result show that both rural and urban households do not bunch at 100 kWh before subsidy. After the subsidy, rural households bunch at 100 kWh (i.e. subsidy threshold. Rural households consuming more than 100 kWh of electricity are subject to standard marginal price for the consumption exceeding 100 kWh). Bunching results for rural households suggests that number of observation just below 100 kWh after the subsidy is about two times more than in the counterfactual (i.e. number of households in absence of subsidy) while we do not find such response from urban households. Similarly, following literature, we examine whether households are responding to marginal price or average price using predicted marginal and average price as instrument in the first stage regression. The results suggest households responds to marginal price and not average price. Since we do not observe similar bunching at 100 kWh consumption threshold where marginal price increases for the urban households, the IV results is likely capturing the demand response of rural households. Motivated by this reduced from results, we build electricity demand model, estimate the model parameter using method of simulated moment and currently we are in process of confirming the results.