Public and private deleveraging in the euro area

我们研究了2009年后公共部门和私营部门去杠杆化如何共同影响单个欧元区国家的宏观经济表现。私营部门的去杠杆化是家庭和企业降低借贷水平的努力。这种努力可能是由于借款人在考虑到净资产减少和收入前景不佳的情况下深思熟虑的决定，或者是贷款人强加的。公共部门去杠杆化是政府降低借贷水平的努力。这些努力可能包括削减政府开支、转移支付或加税（简称紧缩）。在这两种情况下，由于对经济活动的收缩效应，这种努力可能会提高债务相对于当前GDP的水平。我们衡量宏观经济表现的主要指标是失业率。我们共同关注这两方面的努力，因为它们是a)在解释欧元区惨淡的宏观经济表现时的主要嫌疑人，b)概念上密切相关，以及c)可能相互作用，使潜在的不利动态相互加强。我们追求两个目标。第一个目标是量化2009年后私营部门去杠杆化和公共部门去杠杆化对单个欧元区国家宏观经济表现的独特贡献。第二个目标是在理论层面上分析公共部门去杠杆化的替代措施如何与私营部门去杠杆化相互作用（甚至诱导）。此外，在此背景下，我们还探讨了紧缩对分配的影响，并从社会福利的角度确定了公共去杠杆化的最佳构成。我们在一个结构模型中进行分析，该模型捕捉了在货币联盟内运行的小型开放经济体的关键特征。为了量化去杠杆化对宏观经济表现的贡献，我们将模型校准为南部外围的单个欧元区国家，解决模型的完美预见版本并进行反事实实验。为了满足第二个目标，我们考虑了模型的扩展版本，并在不确定性下求解它。在这种情况下，我们能够捕捉到应对紧缩措施的家庭预防性储蓄的变化，也就是说，我们允许私营部门去杠杆化的内生成分。该项目在两个方面都有突破。首先，虽然我们依赖于一个相当标准的模型，但我们在求解模型时不采用摄动方法。相反，我们在考虑不确定性的情况下，对模型进行全局求解。因此，我们能够捕捉到非线性动态，特别是私人和公共部门去杠杆化的相互作用。其次，我们的分析将为正在进行的关于紧缩措施在解释欧元区外围国家惨淡的宏观经济表现中的作用的辩论提供信息。这场辩论目前还没有充分建立在最先进的宏观经济分析方法的基础上。

We study how public-sector and private-sector deleveraging jointly impact the macroeconomic performance of individual euro-area countries after 2009. Private-sector deleveraging are efforts by households and firms to reduce borrowing levels. Such efforts may be due to deliberate decisions by borrowers in light of reduced net worth and less benign income prospects or imposed by lenders. Public-sector deleveraging are efforts by governments to reduce borrowing levels. Such efforts may include cuts to government spending and transfer payments or tax hikes (austerity for short). In both instances such efforts may raise the level of debt relative to current GDP because of contractionary effects on economic activity. Our main indicator for macroeconomic performance is the unemployment rate. We focus on both efforts jointly, since they are a) prime suspects when it comes to accounting for the dismal macroeconomic performance in the euro area, b) conceptually closely related, and c) likely to interact such that potentially adverse dynamics are reinforcing each other. We pursue two objectives. The first objective is to quantify the distinct contribution of both private-sector deleveraging and public-sector deleveraging to the macroeconomic performance of individual euro-area countries after 2009. The second objective is to analyse at a theoretical level how alternative measures of public-sector deleveraging interact with (or even induce) private-sector deleveraging. Moreover, in this context we also explore the distributional implications of austerity and determine the optimal composition of public deleveraging in terms of social welfare.We conduct our analysis within a structural model which captures key features of a small open economy operating inside a currency union. In order to quantify the contribution of deleveraging to the macroeconomic performance, we calibrate the model to individual euro-area countries of the southern periphery, solve the perfect-foresight version of the model and run counterfactual experiments. In order to meet the second objective, we consider an extended version of the model and solve it under uncertainty. In this case, we are able to capture changes in precautionary savings by households in response to austerity measures, that is, we allow for an endogenous component of private-sector deleveraging.The project breaks new ground along two dimensions. First, while we rely on a fairly standard model, we do not resort to perturbation methods in solving the model. Instead, we solve the model globally while allowing for uncertainty. We are thus able to capture non-linear dynamics and, in particular, the interaction of private and public deleveraging. Second, our analysis will inform the ongoing debate about the role of austerity measures in accounting for the dismal macroeconomic performance in the euro-area periphery. This debate is currently not sufficiently grounded in state-of-the-art methods of macroeconomic analysis.