MagmaPropagator: A forecasting tool for location and time of volcanic eruptions due to off-conduit magma propagation.

该项目旨在开发一种基于物理的工具，以预测岩浆在地表以下传播后裂缝喷发的位置和时间。岩浆通常会避开中央通道，通过曲折的路径传播，最终在火山侧翼或火山口内形成新的裂缝。在现在人口密集的许多地区都发现了这样的喷发裂缝。到目前为止，有关的危害完全是根据以往事件的空间分布来估计的。在拟议的研究中，我们将利用几十年岩浆传播研究积累的知识，这些知识现在已经足够成熟，可以创建基于力学原理的预测工具。我们将在三个监测良好的案例中调整我们的方法：Campi Flegrei（意大利）是极其高风险的，激励了近实时预测方法的发展；意大利的埃特纳火山和留尼汪岛的富尔奈斯火山频繁爆发，为测试我们的模型提供了丰富的数据环境。将已建立的确定性模型结合起来，以同时检索轨迹和定时信息。我们将使用蒙特卡罗方法根据过去的喷发模式反演火山的当前力学状态，并使用数据同化技术根据岩浆传播期间记录的数据更新预测。来自模拟实验室实验和数值场景模拟的合成数据将添加到数据池中，使我们能够灵活地测试和应用Campi Flegrei。该项目的成果将是：1)更好地了解不同形状火山的应力状态如何随时间演变以及建筑物历史如何控制地表火山活动的迁移；2)对未来喷口分布的长期预测工具，对土地规划有用；3)根据同化监测数据逐步确定的入侵参数更新预测情景的短期工具。

This project aims at developing a physics-based tool to forecast scenarios for the location and time of a fissure eruption following magma propagation below the surface. Often magma avoids the central conduit and propagates through tortuous pathways, eventually opening a new fissure on the volcano flanks or within a caldera. Such eruptive fissures are found in many areas now densely populated. The related hazard has sofar been estimated purely based on the spatial distribution of previous events.In the proposed research, we will take advantage of the knowledge accumulated in decades of magma propagation research, that is now mature enough for the creation of a forecasting tool based on mechanical principles. We will taylor our approach on three well-monitored cases: Campi Flegrei (Italy) is extremely high-risk and motivates development of near-real time forecasting methods; Etna, Italy, and Piton de la Fournaise, La Reunion have had frequent fissure eruptions and offer data-rich environment to test our models. Established deterministic models will be combined in order to retrieve simultaneously trajectory and timing information. We will use a Monte Carlo approach to invert for the current mechanical state of the volcano based on past eruptive patterns and data assimilation techniques to update forecasts based on data recorded during magma propagation. Synthetic data from analog laboratory experiments and numerical scenario simulations will be added to the data pool allowing us flexible testing and application to Campi Flegrei.The outcomes of this project will be: 1) A better understanding of how the state of stress of volcanoes of different shapes evolve with time and how the edifice history controls the migration of surface volcanism, 2) A long-term forecasting tool for the future distribution of eruptive vents, useful for land planning, 3) A short-term tool to update the forecast scenarios according to intrusion parameters progressively determined by assimilating monitoring data.