Scenarios Of Marine Biodiversity and Evolution under Exploitation and climate change

全球变化情景对于指导长期战略政策、促进管理行动和提高公众对生物多样性未来趋势的认识具有宝贵的价值。虽然为支持渔业生态系统方法而开发的情景和海洋生态系统模型的现实程度已大大提高，但在大多数情况下，鱼类种群的达尔文进化在未来的预测中仍然被忽视。有证据表明，种群通过表型可塑性或遗传过程适应全球变化，从而导致其生活史和生理学的改变。这种适应可以减轻全球变化对鱼类种群的影响，防止它们灭绝，这是一种进化上的拯救，但它也可以将它们推向进化陷阱，因为它们的遗传多样性受到侵蚀，从而降低了它们的进化潜力和恢复力。SOMBEE解决了生态进化动态的作用及其对未来鱼类资源可持续开发的影响。为此，我们将建立和测试渔业和气候变化对种内和种间海洋生物多样性的综合压力情景，通过明确模拟鱼类生活史特征的表型可塑性，它们的选择和适应进化，以及它们对多个相互作用物种的遗传漂变。目标是：i)发展一个主要关注鱼类的前沿进化生态系统模型；Ii)将其应用于一组6个不同的生态系统，以更好地了解渔业和气候变化施加的选择压力；Iii)预测气候和渔业联合情景下种内和种间生物多样性以及相关渔业生产和经济利润的未来变化；iv)量化这些驱动因素的协同和拮抗生态、进化和经济影响。SOMBEE将促进对鱼类群落适应全球变化能力的认识，以及我们预测其持久性和渔业和粮食生产未来可持续性的能力。

Global change scenarios are invaluable to guide long-term strategic policies, prompt management actions and increase public awareness of future trends in biodiversity. Although the degree of realism of scenarios and marine ecosystem models developed in support of an ecosystem approach to fisheries has greatly improved, in most cases, the Darwinian evolution of fish populations is still neglected in future projections. Evidence indicates that populations adapt to global change, either via phenotypic plasticity or genetic processes, leading to modifications in their life-history and physiology. Such adaptation can mitigate the impacts of global change on fish populations and prevent their extirpation, an evolutionary rescue, but it can also push them towards evolutionary traps due to the erosion of their genetic diversity and thus reduction of their evolutionary potential and resilience. SOMBEE addresses the role of eco-evolutionary dynamics and their consequences for the sustainable exploitation of fish resources in the future. To this end, we will build and test scenarios of the combined pressure of fishing and climate change on both intra- and inter-specific marine biodiversity, by explicitly modelling the phenotypic plasticity of fish life-history traits, their selection and adaptive evolution, and their genetic drift for multiple interacting species. The objectives are to: i) develop a cutting edge evolutionary ecosystem model with primary focus on fish; ii) apply it to a set of 6 contrasting ecosystems to better understand the selective pressures exerted by fishing and climate change; iii) project future changes in intra- and inter-specific biodiversity and related fishing production and economic profit under combined climate and fishing scenarios and iv) quantify the synergistic and antagonistic ecological, evolutionary and economic impacts of these drivers. SOMBEE will advance knowledge on the capacity of fish communities to adapt to global change and our ability to forecast their persistence and the future sustainability of fisheries and food production.