Sustainable Developement and Management of Water Resource, Systems with Conflict Purposes

水资源的可持续发展必须兼顾城市、工业、农业、娱乐、水库水位、水电、生态、渔业、水利等所有可行用途。然后将规划目的定义为模糊等级的最小化，其中每个等级都用模糊隶属度函数表示。假设到2100年，由于全球变暖和人口增长，未来的水量和需水量不确定，我们制定了模糊线性优化问题，以最大化模糊等级。利用高阶隶属函数可以确定水库和管道所需的容量。然后利用模糊动态规划方法制定了系统的施工进度计划。目标是在考虑的时间阶段，在变化的水排放和水需求条件下，尽量减少水需求和供水之间的总差异。DP中的状态变量和决策变量用数值0和1表示为大量设施的组合。采用箱型径流和胎儿预测模型对环境调查用水质进行了分析。针对山区监测数据较少的设计工况，采用模糊理论，利用声誉和人的感觉等不确定信息对径流流量进行估算。采用不确定输入和模糊动态规划对水库进行控制。

The sustainable development in water resources must handle all of feasible purposes as municipal use, industrial use, agriculture use, recreation, water level of reservoir, hydro power, ecology, fishery, ant so on. Then we define the planning purpose as minimizing the fuzzy grade where each one is represented with fuzzy membership function.Assuming the uncertain future water discharge and water demand due to global warming and population increase until 2100, we formulated the fuzzy linear optimization problem to maximize the fuzzy grade. The necessary capacities of reservoirs and pipelines can be decided with high grade of membership functions.Then the construction schedule of systems were formulated by using fuzzy dynamic programming. The objective was to minimize the total difference between water demand and supply under the condition of changeable water discharge and water demand at considered time stages. The state and decision variable in DP was represented as the combination of considerable facilities with numerical values of 0 and 1.The water quality for environmental investigation was analyzed with box-typed run-off and fetal prediction model.For the design operation with few monitoring data in the mountain regions, the run-off discharge was estimated by using the uncertain information such as reputation and human sense with fuzzy theory. The reservoir was controlled with uncertain input and fuzzy dynamic programming, too.