Econometric Analysis of the Flying-Geese Pattern of Development in East Asian Countries

为了验证战后东亚国家的雁行发展模式，我们构建了涵盖日本、美国等10个国家的9个行业的LINK CGE(可计算一般均衡)模型，并将其应用于静态和动态模拟。理论将飞雁模式描述为技术和产业从劳动密集型向资本密集型转变所导致的比较优势的演化过程，这种变化与工资租金比的上升相一致。然而，我们的模拟结果表明，导致比较优势或飞雁发展模式变化的主导因素不是技术和产业性质的变化，而是生产率的全面提高，即…。从这个意义上说，必须在TFP的基础上更详细和深入地考察克鲁格曼在《亚洲奇迹的神话》中提出的全要素生产率零增长假说更多CGE框架。这一结果在加州大学和博洛尼亚大学举行的国际会议上公布。[见](1)。在联系CGE的同时，我们计划用一个针对中国的国家CGE模型来分析中国的通胀问题。但在这个过程中，我们发现了一种基于IO表来分析部门价格变化的新方法，因此我们改变了原来的计划，将新方法应用到中国的1987年和1990年的IO表中，以部门为基础分析1987-90年期间的通货膨胀。根据我们的分析，在此期间，产出价格的两位数增长一半是由工资增长解释的，但其余一半主要是由于全要素生产率的“恶化”，这是由中间和资本投入而不是劳动力的低效率造成的。同样，对于中国来说，克鲁格曼的假设也必须得到更详细的调查。[见](2)(1)M.Ezaki和S.Ito，“东亚的雁行发展模式：一般均衡方法”，名古屋大学讨论文件第31号，1995年7月。(2)M.Ezaki，S.Ito，M.Wang和K.Itakura，“中国的通货膨胀和价格竞争力”，讨论文件第41号，名古屋大学，1996年3月。较少

In order to substantiate the flying-geese pattern of development for East Asian countries in the postwar period, we have constructed a link CGE (Computable General Equilibrium) model of 9 industries covering 10 countries including Japan and the U.S., and applied it to both static and dynamic simulations. Theory describes the flying-geese pattern as an evolutionary process of comparative advantages caused by the change in technology and industry from labor intensive to capital intensive one which occurs in accordance with the rise in the wage-rental ratio. Our simulation results indicate, however, that the dominant factor which causes the change in comparative advantage or the flying-geese pattern of development is not the change in the nature of technology and industry but the overall improvement in productivity, i.e., TFP.In this sense, the hypothesis of "zero TFP growth" in "The Myth of Asia's Miracle" by Paul Krugman must be investigated in more detail and deeply on the basis of the … More CGE framework. The result was presented at international conferences held at University of California and Bologna University. [See] (1) .In parallel with the link CGE,we planned to analyze the inflation problem in China by using a country CGE model for China. But we found in the process a new method of analyzing sectoral price changes based on IO tables, so that we changed our original plan and applied the new method to the 1987 and 1990 IO tables of China to analyze inflation in the 1987-90 period on the sectoral basis. According to our analysis, two-digit increases in output price during this period are half explained by the wage increase, but the remaining half is due mostly to the "deterioration" of TFP,which is caused by the inefficiency in intermediate and capital inputs but not labor. Again, the Krugman's hypothesis must be investigated in more detail also for China. [See] (2) .(1) M.Ezaki and S.Ito, "The Flying-Geese Pattern of Development in East Asia : A General Equilibrium Approach, " Discussion Paper No.31, GSID Nagoya University, July 1995.(2) M.Ezaki, S.Ito, M.Wang and K.Itakura, "Inflation and Price Competitiveness in China, " Discussion Paper No.41, GSID Nagoya University, March 1996. Less