On development of traffic information systems for the navigation of drivers' route choice

交通网络面临着越来越多的拥堵外部性问题，这些问题往往会降低网络的整体性能。因此，先进的出行信息系统作为一种高科技手段，已经在许多国家进行了研究，以帮助司机提供更多的信息路线选择，并缓解日益严重的交通拥堵。本研究尝试设计一个路线导航系统的原型模型。为了有效地开展项目，研究课题可以大致分为三个课题。主要研究内容包括：1)建立一个新的不完全信息交通均衡分析框架。主要的研究工作致力于驾驶员是否可以从固定环境中对交通状况的反复观察中学习理性预期的问题。我们研究了驾驶员是否能够学习如何使用标准贝叶斯估计技术从理性预期中学习。2)设计路线导航的交通信息系统。这一主题解决的问题是，即使驾驶员对其环境有理性预期，路线引导信息是否能向驾驶员传达实质性信息。本文试图提出一个研究路线引导信息信息作用的分析框架。3)衡量交通信息系统的经济价值。本课题旨在提出一个统一的框架来衡量航路导航信息系统的经济价值。福利计量是利用具有理性预期的随机实用新型进行的。提出了两个度量信息信息经济价值的替代指标。

Transport networks are increasingly faced with the problems of congestion externalities which tend to reduce the overall performance of networks. Thus, the advanced traveler information systems have been investigated in many countries as high-tech approach top aid drivers more informative route choices and to alleviate increasing levels of traffic congestion on networks. This research tried to design a prototype model for route navigation systems. The research subjects can be largely divided into three subjects in order to carry out the project effectively. The subjects include :1) To develop a new analytical framework for traffic equilibria with incomplete information. The main research efforts are devoted to the question of whether drivers can learn rational expectations from repeated observations of traffic conditions in a stationary environment. We investigated whether drivers can learn how to from rational expectations using standard Baysian estimation techniques.2) To design the traffic information systems for route navigation. This subject addresses to the question of whether route guidance information can covey substantial information to drivers even if drivers behave with rational expectations about their environment. The authors try to propose an analytical framework for investigating the informational role of route guidance information.3) To measure the economic values of traffic information systems. This subject oriented to present a unified framework to measure the economic values of information systems for route navigation. Welfare measurement is made by use of random utility models with rational expectations. Two alternative indices to measure the economic values of informational messages are proposed.