The Impact of Migration on Political and Social Beliefs

本项目旨在调查（返回）移民对劳动力市场结果以及政治和社会信仰的因果影响。全世界大约有10亿移民。然而，移民如何影响劳动力市场结果以及政治和社会信仰的因果证据仍然很少。我们的目标是通过评估巴基斯坦政府资助的国际奖学金计划来缩小这一差距，该计划每年为数百名学生提供临时移民。为了建立因果效应，我们的目标是利用程序选择过程中的不连续性。申请人参加标准化考试，必须通过一个关键的最低分数被接受。我们计划收集有关劳动力市场结果以及政治信仰和偏好的主要面板数据，并将刚刚成功的申请人与那些刚刚失败的申请人进行比较。通过在甄选决定之前、移民期间以及两年后移民返回（这是强制性的）之后对申请人进行调查，我们可以确定，与留在巴基斯坦的未成功申请人相比，移民经历如何影响成功申请人。

This project aims to investigate the causal effect of (return) migration on labor market outcomes as well as political and social beliefs. Worldwide, there are around one billion migrants. However, causal evidence of how migration influences labor market outcomes as well as political and social beliefs remains scarce. We aim to close this gap by evaluating Pakistan’s government-funded international scholarship program, which facilitates temporary migration for hundreds of students every year. To establish a causal effect, we aim to exploit a discontinuity in the program’s selection process. Applicants take part in a standardized test and must pass a critical minimum score to be accepted. We plan to collect primary panel data on labor market outcomes as well as political beliefs and preferences, and compare applicants that just succeeded to those who just failed. By surveying applicants before the selection decision, during the migration period, and then after the migrants’ return (which is mandatory) two years later, we can identify how the experience of migration affects the successful applicants in comparison to their unsuccessful counterparts who remained in Pakistan.