Prognostic methods and future scenarios in language policy – multilingual Russia as an example

自语言政策和规划发展以来，社会语言学预测方法和模型一直是研究的热点。该合作项目填补了语言预测作为语言政策和规划工具的理论和实践意义缺乏认识、语言预测问题因其跨学科性质而缺乏基础研究工作、语言情景领域概念发展不足等空白。缺乏合适的方法和模式反映在社会对语言政策管理的激烈争论中。我们联合项目的研究问题涉及多民族俄罗斯联邦的多语言未来。该联合项目的目标是系统地探索语言政策选定领域的预测模型和方法的基础。我们的目标是在未来情景方法的基础上发展一种跨学科的社会语言学预测方法，从而在语言政策和规划方面考虑其有效性，制定语言政策的预测模型和方法。此外，我们力求根据俄罗斯联邦的语言情况证明它们的适用性。在此过程中，我们为俄罗斯联邦的语言政策制定战略，并从预测模型中得出建议，俄罗斯联邦是欧亚大陆上语言多样性前所未有的国家。拟议的联合项目采用定性和定量方法。项目语料库包括各种来源，包括在俄罗斯地区的密集实地工作。在语言政策中使用预测模型有助于制定策略，提高语言政策措施的效率，并支持预防语言冲突。因此，联合项目具有高度的社会意义：在考虑到这一领域的最新研究和其他国家的实际经验的情况下，发展俄罗斯联邦语言政策的预测方法和模式，对于规划公共政策和有效调节俄罗斯联邦的种族间关系是重要的。拟议的联合项目汇集了德国和俄罗斯专门研究语言政策的研究人员的经验：莫妮卡·温恩德是跨学科的“吉森东欧研究中心”的负责人，艾萨·比奇耶娃是俄罗斯科学院“语言和民族关系研究中心”的首席研究员。两个中心在语言情境、语言政策、语言规划等领域的理论和实践研究方面有着悠久的传统。俄罗斯传统上扮演着连接“西方”和“东方”文明的纽带角色，是一个完美的研究对象，可以详细阐述和应用情景方法。

Sociolinguistic prognostic methods and models have been research desiderata since the development of language policy and planning. The proposed joint project fills the following gaps: the lack of awareness of theoretical and practical significance of language prognosis as an instrument of language policy and planning, the lack of fundamental research works on the prognostic problem due to its interdisciplinary nature, and the underdevelopment of concepts in the language scenario field. The lack of appropriate methods and models is reflected in the hot societal debates about the language policy management. The research question of our joint project adresses the future of multilingualism in the multinational Russian Federation. The objective of the joint project is to systematically explore the foundations for prognostic models and methods in selected fields of language policy. We aim to develop an interdisciplinary approach to sociolinguistic prognosis on the basis of the future scenario method and, thus, to work out prognostic models and methods in language policy considering their effectiveness in regard to the language policy and planning. Furthermore, we seek to demonstrate their applicability on the basis of the language situation of the Russian Federation. In doing so, we elaborate strategies and derive from the prognostic models recommendations for the language policy in the Russian Federation, a country with an unprecedented language diversity on the Eurasian continent.The proposed joint project uses qualitative and quantitative methods. The project corpus comprises various sources, including intensive field work in Russia’s regions.The use of prognostic models in language policy helps to develop strategies, increases the productivity of the language policy measures and supports language conflict prevention. Thus, the joint project is of high societal relevance: the development of prognostic methods and models in the language policy of the Russian Federation, taking into account the latest research in this area and the practical experience of other countries, is important for planning public policy and effectively regulating interethnic relations in the Russian Federation. The proposed joint project brings together the experience of researchers in Germany and Russia specialized in language policy: Monika Wingender as head of the interdisciplinary "Giessen Center for Eastern European Studies" and Aysa Bitkeeva, leading researcher of the "Research Center of language and ethnic relations" of the Russian Academy of Sciences. Both centers have a long-standing tradition in research of language situation, language policy, and language planning spheres in theoretical and practical aspects. Russia that traditionally plays the role of a link between the "western" and "eastern" civilizations is a perfect object of research where the scenario method can be elaborated and applicated.