Political Geographic Research on the Relationships between Social Movement and Voting Behaviors in Postwar Okinawa

利用《冲绳时报》，本研究提取了1949-2000年间冲绳发生的约1400个集体行动(即抗议行动事件)案例，并构建了每个事件的编码数据库。通过对数据库进行定量分析，并与在政治集会等场合发表的宣言和决议的内容进行定性比较，本研究试图不仅探究此类事件发生的历史背景，而且探讨其发生的地理背景。在此基础上，运用社会经济指标的定量方法，考察了所掌握的社会运动的发展与冲绳人投票行为的空间格局，特别是改革派选票作为其另一个政治渠道的关系。结果表明，根据冲绳的地缘政治和地缘经济背景，冲绳社会运动发展为围绕领土、主权和日本…的应用的民众运动更多的是1972年回归前的国家宪法，以及回归后呼吁反战和平主义和反对美国军事基地的改革派运动。调查还发现，回归前的琉球政府行政长官选举使反对美军驻扎的抗议行动表现为改革派政党和候选人的投票行为。另一方面，由于保守党被组织成一个阵营，支持希望保持美国在冲绳的军事存在的日本和美国政府，依赖军事基地经济和基于国家补贴的公共工程投资的地方的保守派选票增加。可以理解，冲绳社会内部保守派和改革派阵营之间的政治地理冲突促成了美军基地的延续和日美安全安排。但从近期社会运动碎片化、本土化、冲绳政治整体保守化等趋势来看，可以预见，冲绳地区反对东京政治的抗议活动将变得弱于冲绳融入国家的力量。较少

Using the Okinawa Times, this research extracted approximately 1400 cases of collective actions (i.e. protest action events) taking place in Okinawa from 1949-2000 and constructed the database in which each event was coded. By quantitatively analyzing the database and qualitatively comparing with the contents of declarations and resolutions addressed on such occasions as political rallies, this research attempted to explore not only the historical but also the geographical contexts in which such events occurred. Furthermore, it was examined with the quantitative methods using socio-economic indexes how the development of the social movements thus grasped was related to the spatial patterns of Okinawans'voting behaviors, reformist votes in particular, as their another political channel.As a result, according to the geopolitical and geo-economic contexts over Okinawa, Okinawan social movements developed as the popular movements over territory, sovereignty, and the application of the Japa … More nese Constitution before the 1972 reversion and as the reformist movements appealing for anti-war pacifism and against U.S.military bases after the reversion. It was also found that the poplar election for the chief executive of the Government of the Ryukyu Islands immediately before the reversion made protest actions against the U.S.military presence manifest as the voting behaviors for reformist parties and candidates. On the other hand, as conservative parties were organized as a camp that supported the Japanese and U.S. governments that wished to maintain the U.S.military presence in Okinawa, conservative votes increased in the localities dependent on the military base economy and the public work investment based on state subsidies. It can be understood that these political geographic conflicts between the conservative and reformist camps within Okinawan society have contributed to the continuation of the U.S.military bases and the Japan-U.S. security arrangements. However, judging from recent trends such as the fragmentation and localization of social movements and the overall conservatization of Okinawan politics, it can be predicted that Okinawan regional protest against the Tokyo politics will became weaker than the forces integrating Okinawa into the state. Less